Target Price From HWangDBS 2H2009 Summery

Sime Darby (RM8.24; Fully Valued; Price Target: RM7.45; SIME MK)
Stronger 4QFY09

• 4QFY09 earnings were better than expected due to lower taxation, slightly stronger property margins, and lower borrowing cost
• CPO price could range between RM2,000 and RM2,200 in FY10F
• Maintain Fully Valued call and RM7.45 TP.

Axiata (RM3.11; Fully Valued; Price Target: RM 2.70 (Prev RM 2.35); AXIATA MK)
2Q09 core profit in line

• Annualized core 2Q09 net profit is in line with our FY09F profit, but below consensus
• We raised FY10F-11F earnings in anticipation of a turn around in its overseas operations
• Sum-of-parts price target is raised to RM2.70. But downgrade to Fully Valued on rich valuation.

Litrak (RM2.69; Hold; Price Target: RM2.70; LTK MK)
Limited upside

• 1QFY10 result was in line, with traffic volume growing 4% q-o-q
• Declared 10 sen interim DPS, double that for preceding year
• Downgrade to Hold, TP maintained at RM2.70.

KNM Group (RM0.77; Buy; Price Target: RM1.10; KNMG MK)
Expect stronger 2H09 earnings

• Weak 2Q09 result was within expectation
• Expect stronger 2H09 following recent contract wins
• Poised for new contract wins given stronger oil price.

MRCB (RM1.29; Buy; Price Target: RM1.50; MRC MK)
Stronger earnings ahead

• Strong 2Q09 result driven by higher construction contribution
• Expect earnings to improve following lower building material cost and improving property demand
• Maintain Buy and SOP-derived RM1.50 TP.

TRC Synergy (RM1.45; Buy; Price Target: RM2.05; TRC MK)
Still awaiting key catalyst

• 2Q09 result in line, margins improved
• Still missing key re-rating catalyst, Petro-Bru led Brunei refinery project
• Maintain Buy rating and RM2.05 TP.

Malaysia Airports (RM3.34; Buy; Price Target: RM4.50; MAHB MK)
2Q09 result within expectation

• 2Q09 core net profit was flat y-o-y at RM60.6m, in line with our expectation but below consensus’
• Positive impact from restructuring, strong passenger growth in LCCT, and improved rental contribution supported earnings
• Maintain Buy and SOP-based RM4.50 TP.

Eastern & Oriental (RM1.33; Buy; Price Target: RM2.10 (Prev RM 1.50); EAST MK)
In line, stronger sales ahead

• 1QFY10 result was in line, profit is expected to pick up with RM330m unbilled sales and RM2b upcoming launches
• Completion of rights issue by Oct09 will strengthen balance sheet and cashflows
• Maintain Buy, raised TP to RM2.10 based on 20% discount to RNAV of RM2.66 (fully diluted RM1.99)

Lafarge (RM6.30; Fully Valued; Price Target: RM5.10; LMC MK)
2Q09 in line, supported by higher ASP

• 2Q09 result was within our and consensus expectations
• Demand continues to fall 7% y-o-y, but should pick up in 2H09 along with a recovering economy
• As expected, LMC declared a single tier 15 sen DPS
• We retain our Fully Valued call as valuation remains expensive; RM5.10 TP is based on mid-cycle 9.8x PE.

PBBANK Accumulation Under Low Volume

Base on the chart money is flowing out but the price is holed so this is accumulation under low volume. Something likely to happen in PBBANK, I think it accumulated volume to bounds up.

KNM GROUP BHD saw its net profit drop by 25.8%

KNM GROUP BHD saw its net profit drop by 25.8% year-on-year for its second quarter ending June 30, 2009, to RM71.42 million from RM96.29 million and no dividend was declared for the quarter.

However this bad news is already reviewed on KNM share price by drop to RM0.77 and low volume. Now the bad news had roll out and soon I think likely the share price will gains on oil rebound in coming next week.

Related Post

1. KNM Support Line At RM0.75

AXIATA Is About To Test RM3.40 Level

AXIATA is on the way moving up since drop to lowest at RM1.66 level. Till now the share price bounds up back to RM3.10 yesterday and about 86.7% incrence. With the news Axiata Group Bhd posted net profit of RM526.84 million in the second quarter ended June 30, up 43% from RM366.64 million a year ago will likely push Axiata share price to move up.

Base on the chart RSI and Wm Axiata is about to test RM3.40 level.

PMETAL Testing RM1.20 Level

Press Metal (PMetal) just drop back to 1st support line at RM1.20, once this level broken next support line will be around RM1.05. Base on the chart if happen this kind of chart patten, the share price will bound up and likely to broken RM1.40 level. However how far and how fast it bound still depend on volume.

Today's Market Preview (27-08-2009)

Malaysian economy beat market expectations with gross domestic product -3.9%

The Malaysian economy beat market expectations with gross domestic product contracting 3.9 per cent in the second quarter, versus a consensus forecast by private economists of minus 5.1 per cent. The governor said the manufacturing sector’s pace of decline slowed due to an improvement in production on inventory stocking and higher domestic consumption. Zeti said the construction sector expanded further as the stimulus measures began to be reflected in higher activities in the non-residential and civil engineering subsectors.

Foreign Investors Turned Net Sellers In July 2009

Citing EPFR Global’s data, CIMB Research said Malaysia saw a net outflow of US$120.8 million (RM424 million) in July, below is the flow along year 2009:-

1. US$182.8 million in January-Flow out
2. US$56.5 million in February-Flow out
3. US$144.8 million in March-Flow out
4. US$36 million in April - net inflow
5. US$154 million in May - net inflow
6. US$25.6 million in June - net inflow

Base on the data, the out-flow is more than in-flow so foreign fund is slowly move out from Malaysia share market and this is not good. Now this FBM-KLCI index level likely been supported by government and with thin support from foreign fund, if the fund continues flow out for August and September ( I think likely in red ) target year end index at 1,200 point will unlikely to happen.

Today's Market Preview (26-08-2009)

KNM Support Line At RM0.75

Yesterday KNM close about the support line RM0.75 with low volume. At this point if KNM price broken this level than likely will see KNM a strong bound up to 1st resistant level RM0.85 and if broken again this level so KNM likely to hits RM1.00 by year end.

However the share price may go sideways and may drop to next support line at RM0.54 but I think it will unlikely to happen due to base on the CMF and RSI showing that this level RM0.75 is near to the lower and crude oil likely to speculated up the price by year end.

I had buy in at RM0.76 level.

An opportunity to buy into Bursa is near

During Malaysia share market correction season along with Asia market, I see some good opportunity to buy into Bursa. Now base on the CMF chart, Bursa still holding on positive zone and I think it may drop into negative zone soon in this coming few days or next week depend how the market will be move.

Any CMF drop into negative will be an opportunity, but how deep it will drop may hard to said.

Today's Market Preview (25-08-2009)

Big difference between API and DOE data, Oil Price May Speculated

For the past three weeks, DOE crude oil inventories have seen a net cumulative increase of 944K barrels, which stood at 9,341K (if we exclude yesterday’s significant 8,397K barrel decrease in crude oil inventories). Meanwhile, API crude inventories realized a cumulative 10,068K barrel decline. This discrepancy has caused uncertainty about the actual level of US crude oil inventories.

Base on the report from US, they believe this could serve to draw investors’ attention from market fundamentals, towards other economic barometers (like equity markets) for short-term guidance. Yesterday’s DOE data showed that gasoline inventories had contracted 2,177K barrels, expanding the cumulative decline in US gasoline inventories to 5,637K barrels. This signals improving US retail demand for crude oil. However, with US distillate fuel stocks gaining another 1,529K barrels last week, concerns about weak industrial crude oil demand could weigh on crude oil contract prices.




Furthermore, the US Gulf coast refinery crack spread increased to USD8.638/bbl, which saw refinery utilization increase one percentage point — to 83.2% last week. This increases the probability of increased US refined products output in the week ahead, which could also weigh on crude oil prices, given currently weak US industrial crude oil demand.

Today's Market Preview (24-08-2009)

FBM-KLCI Enter Correction Zone

Finally the bull run start at March 2009 is about to end for a correction however due to now the FBM-KLCI is base on 30 share and most of it is GLF so the correction will be limited and supported by government big fund like EPF, Amanah Saham & more.

Compare with share market around Asia, Malaysia share market in % change is small, up or down also limited due to Malaysia market polisi is controlled by government big fund. Due to this reason Malaysia share index is did not show a good picture about Malaysia economic status and foreign fund is more prefer to invest their money in another South East Asia country.

So to make profit now is the time. Invest into 30 share inside FBM-KLCI index during this correction, government will push up the share when Asia share market move up to show that Malaysia economic is grow together with most of the Asia country. One thing good is now the index did not show the real economic situation inside Malaysia so if Malaysia economic is low and bad as long as another country like Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, China and Japan move up sure Malaysia FBM-KLCI index will move up. If found 30 share inside FBM-KLCI share price is too high so buy they warrant.

Today's Market Preview (21-08-2009)

Teoh Beng Hock Letter!

more...

JAKS - Fund Manager Is Coming Out Slowly

Money is flowing out from JAKS share after fund manager push up the share price from RM0.40 to highest above RM1.00. From the chart, money is flowing out slowly and at the same time trying to maintenance price at above RM0.80 ( beyond line label C ) I think the fund will continues to flow out the money until the price reach RM0.80 or below a bit at the 1st support line before any buy back share will happen by the fund.

Base on the RSI and Wm chart, I think after the fund flow out, the money will use back to push JAKS share price up again to hits RM1.05. This fund of money is the same use in pushing JAKS share price from line A to line B and after all the good new they need retail investor to take they place to support the price so than the money can be use to push more higher the share.

I think price below RM0.80 will be a good buy however it still depend on it is the money will flow bank base on CMF chart after RM0.80 level broken.

Today's Market Preview (06-07-2009)

HKEX-CC Warrant

HKEX-CC is warrant for Hong Kong Stock Exchange index and it just launch but did not popular. The amount buy and sell is the same issuer himself.

Malaysia Share Market On Risk With H1N1 Latest Data

Malaysia is the highest rate of deaths in South East Asian region! Compare with New Zealand, Malaysia almost have the same amount of H1N1 cases but New Zealand death is only 14 but as today Malaysia death rate hits 62!

If this data continues been monitor, sure Malaysia share market will affected so they is a risk in investing into share market at this time.

Base on the report, we all are 4 times high risk death by H1N1 compare South East Asian region.

Today's Market Preview (19-08-2009)

IOICORP is building up momentum to move up

IOICORP is building up momentum to move up. Base on the RSI chart, IOICORP price may will move up due to money flow in into the share.

If CMF still in positive when the share price drop it mean someone may accumulative IOICORP share in low price and likely when accumulated enough this fund will push the IOICORP price up. May be will wait till a new about the CPO price move up than the fund controller will move the price up.

Volatile trading can be expected and oil prices could test USD65 this week

Report from Weekly Communities Market View
Last week WTI crude oil prices were buffeted around by contradicting economic releases. After signs of improvement in U.S. industrial production and European GDP, weak U.S. consumer confidence figures released on Friday reminded market participants that demand is still frail and pushed prices below USD68.

The recession appears to be ending in many parts of the world, which should eventually motivate a rebound in energy demand. The International Energy Agency increased its forecast for 2009 global oil demand by 190 kb/d to 83.94 mb/d due to the unexpected strength in Asia.

However, oil demand is still forecast to fall 2.6% this year. Prices continue to take cues from changes in economic fundamentals rather than the still-bearish supply-demand picture. As a result, volatile trading can be expected and oil prices could test USD65 this week.

Price Placer By Warrant Issuer

Below is the AMMB-CD warrant today with not mach transaction:-













Below is the Axiata-CC for today transaction:-












Just want to share this info with you all, this is the price placer by Warrant Issuer (like OSK and CIMB) in today the buy and sell on AMMB-CD is low and you will see buy and sell placed 500 lot (lot size 100 unit) in ever sell 1, 2... 5 and buy.

This placer is done by issuer become buyer and seller so if they want to push up the price just placed more buy that sell like what happen in Axiata-CC. So some time the issuer play buy and sell by it own to move the price up and test the market responsive.

All the big fund also use this technical in most of the share but sometime happen two or more fund better each another to move or bull-cap the share price.

End of it, when you see a lot of buyer do not just think it is buy from retail investor or market force sometime it just a show.

Today's Market Preview (18-08-2009)

KNM Drop Below RM0.80

Now the bad news is rolling out in the market but still did not know how long market will view on it and how the affected will be on the market. Yesterday a big drop across the Asia region market have made us think it is a small correction or big resilient after a big bound up on the recovery since month of April 2009.

Along with the drop KNM hits below RM0.80 close at RM0.75 with the money is flowing out from it since 26 June 2009 base on the chart. The major support line will be at RM0.70 and any drop below it will be a good buy for me.

End of last week, we still hear report from Business program from TV that this week the FBM-KLCI will move up try to broken 1,200 point and now we see how true the news is and what the big fund manager want retail investor to think by buy in for they to sale out or they want retail investor to sale in panic they buy in with low price.

FBM KLCI Close At Red Sea

Today out of 30 share only 2 share keep out from the red. FBM-KLCI drop almost 20 point along with Asia market drop. The index had moving up for some time already and now is the time to do some correction.

Over all the market is recovery so for me I will buy in into the market in ever big drop like today. After this drop I think FBM-KLCI will go side way for this month of August due to it is a month of "Puasa" so usually share will move higher during Hari Raya.

Today's Market Preview (17-08-2009)

AMMB Report Update From HwangDBS

AMMB-CD May Go Up More With The Mother Share

At the beginning of the market recovery, AMMD-CD have moving up from RM0.15 till now RM0.32 already 100% increment. AMMD exercise price is RM2.40 and now the warrant is in the money.

Base on the chart, money is still flowing in and with warrants out standing 75 mil share so they are still room for issuer to sale the warrants by pushing up the mothers share. If the AMMB can hits target price RM4.90 the warrants will be (4.90 - 2.40 )/6 = RM0.42 so about 10 sen to go from Friday closing price.

The warrant still have 399 days before expiry and with premium 2.37% they is still room for the warrant will bring profit. In addition, all the AMMB warrant from CC, CD and CE are far from expire so they is no reason the issuer will put down the mother share.

Asia Market Likely To Technical Correction On This Week

Asia market had going up since begin of April till now without a technical correction only move sideways during early of July before countinuen move up, same thing happen to Malaysia share market.

As most of us know the economic crisis is over and now is on the way to recovery process, I see warrant market is bound up strongly since last week and myself had invest into AMMB-CD and IOICRP-CJ to hope get fast profit. Warrant is a good tool to make money when market is go up with investor comfident level is high, however how the market bound up strongly it still need to correction so ever correction is a oppocunity to buy in. H1N1 still is the risk in investing into market now.

New KNM Warrant Issue By OSK Investment Bank Berhad

OSK Investment Bank Berhad issue out a new warrant of KNM name KNM-CB and listed on Bursa Malaysia on 7 Aug 2009 with a issue price of RM0.15. The KNM-CB is as below:-

The issue price is 27.78% premium ( base on KNM price at RM0.90) and base on HwangDBS target price, KNM is RM1.10 with equal to KNM-CB RM0.125. If at the time KNM hits RM1.10 and add on the premium price into KNM-CB so the warrant price will be RM0.275.

Since KNM-CB exercise price is at RM0.85 so the warrant is about to "in the money" status. I think this warrant is profitable to buy in. However because of now KNM likely share price moving sideways for this week so I think can wait a bit for the price to drop below issue price before buy in into KNM-CB. One need to remember also is that this KNM-CB is European-style so you can not settlement on any time.


In this month they are some new warrants issued and base on the 1st day tradings the respond is good. Due to the exercise price is low and must of the investor think the market will be better before the warrants expiry so the demean is their. At the same time it also mean a profitable opportunity. Will share with you about another new warrant in another posting soon.

Malaysia Auto Industrial Faster DemandRecovery

Malaysia Auto Industrial faster demand recover

• Stronger than expected 1H09 total industry vehicles (TIV) sales led us to raise forecast to 497k units in 2009 vs. 410k previously
• Raised FY09F NI by 5%-14% for APM, MBM and UMW. Cut FY3/10F loss of Proton by 50%
• Upgrade APM to BUY, but kept FULLY VALUED for MBM and UMW. Retain HOLD on Proton

Below is the report summery by Hwang DBS:-

Strong 1H09 TIV sales of 249k (-8% y-o-y). On an annualized basis this is stronger than our earlier expectation of 20% decline for 2009 made back in 1Q09, when the outlook for the economy and the auto sector was rather gloomy. We are now convinced that 2H09 sales would be healthy. In Jun09, Proton sold more vehicles than Perodua – the first time in 3 years. This was helped by Proton’s maiden MPV, the Exora.

Raise 2009 TIV to 497k After raising forecast sales for Proton and Perodua to 128k (1H09: 65.8k) and 157k (1H09: 77.0k) units respectively. We also factored in higher FY09F sales for Toyota to 81k units. While UMW is expected to launch the Toyota hybrid Prius today (vs. Honda Civic’s in Mar09), Perodua would be launching its MPV in Nov 09 (vs. Proton’s Exora in Apr09). An improving economic outlook coupled with stable interest rates will help to encourage consumption.

Lift forecast earnings. Consequent to the higher sales assumptions, we raise FY09F net earnings for APM and MBM Resources by 10% and 7% respectively. As such, we raise price targets for APM to RM2.20 (based on 7x FY10F PE) and for MBM Resources to RM2.00 (based on 6x FY10F PE), respectively. Hence, APM is upgraded to BUY but we retain our FULLY VALUED call for MBM Resources. We like APM for its 15% NI growth, 6% net dividend yield, RM1.12 net cash/share as well as strong management.

Crude Oil Supply And Demand A Sign Of Economic Recovery

I had read a report from US is about both ICE Brent crude and WTI forward curves have become flatter since 21 July. 2-year contango on the WTI and Brent curves have contracted 14.3% and 24% respectively. Base on the report they believe this indicates a tightening in global crude oil supply/demand balances — albeit with still a large supply overhang in the US. They have estimate fair-value for front-month

1. WTI crude oil at USD70/bbl to USD73/bbl in Q3:09/Q4:10.
2. Crude oil prices around the USD71/bbl level may reflect current macroeconomic factors: a weak US dollar, and improving industrial crude oil demand.

Summery of the report:-
In China, the second-largest crude oil consumer, manufacturing sector activity continues to expand, with the country’s CLSA Manufacturing PMI rising 1.93% m/m in July, to 52.8 (above the threshold 50 level).

The Japanese Leading index has climbed 3.7% m/m — signaling improved economic conditions, which bodes well for crude oil demand. US API distillate fuel inventories contracted 1,043K barrels last week, the first decline in 11 weeks, which could signal improving US industrial crude oil demand.

US API crude oil inventories have also realized a net 20,320K barrel cumulative contraction since 17 April — also signalling better demand conditions. However, API gasoline and DOE crude oil inventories have seen a cumulative 2,044K and 6,822K barrel increase in the past two weeks — adding to the large US supply overhang. This could limit upside potential for crude oil prices — therefore do not forecast prices above USD75/bbl going into Q4:09.

Base on the sign of the crude oil supply and demand, world economic is in recovery and likely the crisis is over so now is a good time to invest into good quality share to earn some profit along the economic recovery highway.

Today's Market Preview (7-08-2009)

Gold & Other Official Reserves As End Of May

Amanah Saham 1 Malaysia Hot On 1st Day 2nd Cool Off

Yesterday Amanah Saham 1 Malaysia is open to for sale and was selling fast but today I see the quantity of people buying the unit is low. One of my friend told me that he go to buy on 2nd day is not a lot of people.

However as long as government group up all this money to maintenance FBM-KLCI sure on surface Malaysia economic will be good.

Pelikan Likely Hits RM 1.80 By Oct 2009

Pelikan is making to way of recovery like most of the share. This favor share by OSK investment have a target price of RM1.85 so base on the chart RM1.80 is the resistant level and RSI and W%R show the up movement is supported. So I think likely Pelikan will hits RM1.80 level by OCT 2009

Today's Market Preview (06-08-2009)

KNM likely to drop or go sideways in this week and next week

This few day crude oil price increasing did not really help push KNM price moving higher and also news about new project also did not affected the price. Base on the chart, KNM likely to drop or go sideways in this week and next week.

Any drop below RM0.80 will be a good entry point into KNM. I still waiting KNM price move lower before add KNM again into my profile. Now still target my profile in warrant.

Today's Market Preview (05-08-2009)

Gold Price Bound Back This Week Try To Broken USD960 Level

Click to visit my Gold Investment Blog for more detail.

Everday we see FBM KLCI make higher for this year with not much good news. Trading volume is low had add caution during investing into share market.

Volatile Crude Oil Trading Likely On Months Of August

Last week’s price swings may be a good indication of the volatile trading we are likely to see in the crude oil market over the coming weeks. Although demand for petroleum products has shown slight signs of improvement, prices above USD70 do not seem to reflect fundamental realities. Spare capacity in OPEC countries is at elevated levels and demand for crude oil is projected to fall by 2.5 mbd this year, according to the IEA. Strong equity markets and a soft dollar could keep this price level in sight, however.



















Over the medium term, the buildup in Inventories will need to be chiseled away before recent gains are supported by fundamentals. In terms of dead weight tonnages, tankers floating at sea being used as oil storage are near record highs, according to the available data that begins in 1982. A dramatic shift in investor sentiment coupled with weak underlying fundamentals could force WTI oil prices back toward USD50. In the absence of this shift, prices could remain in the USD60 - USD70 range.

FBM-KLCI Is About To Celebrate Its "Full Moon"

About a month since the FBM-KLCI start take effect, KLCI index has going up about 100 point due to the new calculation base on 30 share.

According to bloomberg, FBM KLCI is now priced at a price earnings ratio (PER) of 20.5 times. As the number suggests, it looks surprisingly more expensive than Hong Kong's 42-member Hang Seng Index at 18.5 times, and Singapore's 30 member Straits Times Index (STI) at 16.2 times.Is our stock market really more expensive than that of Hong Kong and Singapore, where trading activities are more vibrant?

I think the answer is yes because FBM KLCI's 30 constituents said to account for more than 60% of the Main Board's market capitalization, have government linked companies (GLCs) that are tightly held by government institutions. When a stock is tightly held, it is likely that its valuations are well supported and hence it becomes expensive.

Now government is easy to control the index and with the new launch Amanan Saham 1Malaysia sure will help government funding to continues to support the KLCI index and share market. I think to be save at all, invest into FBM-KLCI 30 constituents will be more sure profitable.

Today's Market Preview (03-08-2009)

Economic Fundamentals Is Not Sure But Share Market Confident Is Back

I'm not sure economic fundamentals is good or not but what I sure is share market confident is strong due to KLCI index is supported strongly. One thing surprise me is that they are still people did not know KLCI now is caculated by 30 share and banking system & plantation top 5 share will affect KLCI above 50%!

So I think most of the retail investor with regular invest base on KLCI index will see market is getting better and supported. Because of that if they buy in penny share so sure the share they buy drop to zero also unaffected KLCI index. Now market really full of confident, I think this time government is vary smart by change the KLSE index base on 30 share to get confident into the share market.










I think this time is a golden time to invest into all the FBM KLCI 30 share warrant. I prefer warrant from banking system, plantation and gaming like Genting because all this 3 sector will affected above 65% of KLCI index so if government need to keep support the index sure all this top 5 share will be well monitor and supported by all the fund they had ( like Valuecap, EPF and tabung haji) .

Related Articles:-

• FBM-KLCI Is Not The Same With KLCI Month Ago
• FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Breakdown