Today's Market Preview (23-01-2009)

OPR Rate Cut Less Negative Effect On AMMB

OPR rate cut will less effect AMMB. 60% of loan is fixed rate and AMMB had the highest fixed loans ration compare bank in Malaysia. Other that PBBANK, AMMB also a good counter to look into.

Today's Market Preview (22-01-2009)

Money Is Slowly Flow Back To KNM

KNM share price had drop back to RM 0.43 with base on the chart money is slowly flow back into KNM share, if countinues flee days the CMF still going positive KNM will soon to have 2nd rebound to RM 0.60. But now still not a good time to buy in.

KLCI Had Drop Countinues 7 Trading Days

KLCI had countinues drop for 7 trading days and finally some good news flow out

with Bank Negara cuts key interest rate to 2.5pc. This news may give some bounds up to KLCI but I think it will not less long due to base on the chart, money is slowly flow out from market.

PBBANK End FY08 With Strong Result

From HWANGDBS

Today's Market Preview (21-01-2009)

Kuala Terengganu Loss And TNB Loss

Before the election on Kuala Terangganu, a news about announcing a possible cut in electricity tariff may happen and TNB announed also about the review at mid Feb 2009. What happen now? For the period ending Nov 2008, it announced a net loss after tax of RM944.1 million, the largest in over four years, increasing from RM282.9 million in the last quarter.

Before announced out the report sure TNB highest management know the report is ugly. I think government also know, but still announcing some factitious hope to get vote for BN.

What will happen if BN win KT? Will TNB announed a big loss? What I know is during KT election campaing BN use out around 3Billion! Now the money is loss and also the election, so need to get back the money by announcing loss on privatization company.

I'm just hard to understand that how TNB businness can loss RM944.1 million.

Investment Strategy In The Year Of The Earth Ox

This year on 2009, is the year of the Earth Ox NOT Gold Ox like most of the shopping mall displayed. We had see the year of Earth Rat pass with KLCI drop from as high 1,500 to lowest 810 and slowly recover some loss during end of the year. Now what will happen to the year of Ox?

For the new lunar year, the element analysis indicates a combination of Earth and Earth, signifying a period of rejuvenation process and harmony for the world to get up and stand on steadier ground.
The fortunes industries with Earth element will be Wood element, these include timber, textile and education also likely to fare well are industries with links to the Metal element such as banking, high-tech businesses and gold, due to Earth 'gives birth' to Metal.

In banking sectors,

PBBANK is a good choice. Dependable and conservative just like Ox.
For high-tech GPACKET is a good choice due to developing wireless internet in penang.

Even though the year of Ox ruled by Earth element, industries that are associated with the Earth element e.g property, agriculture and construction are expected to be only average.
Property, agriculture and construction sectors.

Hopefully this year of the Earth Ox may set a base for world economic to jump bounds up from crisis.

Today's Market Preview (20-01-2009)

KLCI Is Moving Down

KLCI is moving down the hill and a big drop may happen soon. However is the CMF still in positive, all the blue chip may hold when KLCI index drop.

PBBANK Expecting A Good Dividend Yield

PBBANK is about to flow out a good set of result by this week with a final dividend of 44sen. Base on the chart public bank share price is turning down due to majority KLCI index is drop.

PBBANK had built a strong support base at around RM 8.20, if this few day price close above RM 8.60 will be a save buy in into public bank. Base on last 1998 crisis, when KLCI big drop around April 1998 PBBANK did not drop alot the share price still hold. Hopefully this time PBBANK still can hold on when KLCI big drop.

The KLCI index will drop more after Chinese New Year holidays and when close to Mar 2009.

Today's Market Preview (19-01-2009)

D Day For KLCI

Finally the Kuala Terengganu election win by PAS and for today on 19 Jan 2009 KLCI will drop. Today is D Day for KLCI.

Today's Market Preview (16-01-2009)

16-Jan-2009 Last Day Of KLCI Trading Day Before Election

Today is the last day of trading day before Kuala Teragganu election. Today may see some bounds up due to yesterday drop and windows dressing before election, however base on the chart KLCI are moving down so today is the last pull out from KLCI.

Today's Market Preview (15-01-2009)

PBANK Still Strong

Public Bank still moving up with most of the news said bank will be effected badly in this crisis. I think now if still wan to be in share market, so PBANK is a good option to hold.

Today's Market Preview (14-01-2009)

KLCI New Year Bull Run Ended

KLCI new year bull run is over and base on the chart the bull are change to bear. Cut loss or profit taking time is over, stay sideline and keep eye open for any bad news to flow out soon.

KNM Bull Run Time Out

KNM bounds up is run out of time, base on the chart the bull run is about to end vary soon may be today is the last day to cut loss or take profit at RM 0.49 level.

One good news is, KNM vol may made KNM will not drop back below RM0.40 if nothing big bad news happen in Malaysia or world oil market. OPEC will do anything or something to push oil price up and sure oil price will not stay on below USD 40 for long.

For short term and media term I think KNM is vary hard for invester to make profit on it without insider news. The total % share hold by the KNM boss and EPF is still low, so KNM share price is open for speculation and we as a small retail traders also will ez become share price speculation victem.

Due to low price of oil they are high risk KNM project in hand may cancel like WCT case but sure this news will be speculated before you can see the effect on share price.

Today's Market Preview (13-01-2009)

USD is starting to appreciate against most currencies

USD is starting to appreciate against most currencies, now 1 gram of GOLD is sold USD26.40 and equal to RM96.73. For Malaysia ringgit will drop in value and it's good time to buy in gold to keep because ringgit note is lossing value. Same go to KLCI, the share market is about to drop! I think before KT election the KLCI will drop havery.

KNM bull run may end soon

KNM had bull run for countinues 6 trading days and base on the chart the bull run may end soon. EPF had 8% in take in KNM and share buy back had > 1%.

Now only left 4 trading day before Kuala Terengganu election day on 17-Jan-09, from what I know my friend at KT said PKR ceramah always full of people compare BN ceramah and local media is not making any report about that.

I just worder what will happen to KLCI if KT win by PKR, be safe I think better take out all share in market before this fridays.

E&O share bounds up due to Goldman Sachc buy in open market

Goldman Sachc is buy in into E&O had bull E&O share up. The question is why buy in into E&O?

Today's Market Preview (12-01-2009)

Today's Market Preview (09-01-2009)

KLCI Need Good News To Countinues The Bull Run

On 8-Jan-2009 KLCI bull run had take a rest, base on the chart KLCI index had at top on RSI chart. Usually share will turn down abit when hits RSI > 20% hopefully today the bull run countinues after a T+3 profile taking activity on 8-Jan-2009.

Profile Taking On T+3

Today will be the profile taking day for who buy in during monday due to T+3. Now only left 2 weeks before CNY and 1 week before Kuala Terengganu election, I think most of the inverter will pull out from share market by next week. The bull run may countinues for next week.

Today's Market Preview (08-01-2009)

KLCI New Year Bounds Up May End Soon

At begaining of the year 2008, KLCI start at 1,443.68 point and countinues bull up to 1,516.22 point in 6 trading days. At 14-Jan-2008 the 7th day's trading KLCI hits at highest 1,524.69 in 2008 and start turn down till end of the year 2008. During the bul run in countinues 6 trading day, KLCI up 72.54 point or 5.02% up.

• If same thing happen on this year, the bull run will end by today on 07 Jan 2009 due to the bull run had > 5% up.
• If base on trading day, the bull run will end by Fridays on 9 Jan 2009 and turn down.

Now the Market bull run did not up base on alot of solid good data anytime the market can go down with one single bad news, so if history come again on this crisis KLCI will go down to 600 point after this bull run.

I think now really not the time to buy in into market.

My old post:KLCI - The Turning Point

KNM Just Hits RM 0.50

Finally can make some profile in early of 2009, just sold out some KNM share buy in during price between RM 0.40. Looking forward to sold KNM share buy in during price between RM 0.50.

Hopefully KNM share can get back to RM 0.80 before Mar 2009. Kuala Tengganu election result will show so sign what will happen on Mar 2009, still remember Anwah campain to take over PM? I think he will come back with the BN member forging story by Mar 2009, Malaysia politic will in risk so same go to KLCI market.

Today's Market Preview (07-01-2009)

SAAG In A Position To Bounds Up

Base on the chart, SAAG may bounds up anytime.

KLCI Bounds Up Due To ValueCap RM5 billion From EPF?

We may forgot ValueCap is getting the RM5 billion from EPF ( Ours money ) before 1Q09. The KLCI bounds up may due to ValueCap buy up the share value. Someone will be super rich if they know which share will be push up by the RM5 billion from EPF.

Exp if someone buy in IOICORP at Rm2.30 end of Oct 2008 with 100,000 unit equal to RM 230K and now sale at RM 4.40 the profile will be RM 210K. Almost 100% profit and sure they are vary happy with the bonus. This only 100K unit how about 1 million unit? This money sure enought for any election campain fee.

Hopefully this RM5 billion will be use to help Malaysia economic.

Today's Market Preview (06-01-2009)

KNM - The End Of Cold Long Winter

Finally KNM is start to bounds up to end the long cold winter, but base on the chart the winter may end but the summer is not come yet still need to see in this few day the oil price movement before know the KNM share movement.

What Reason KLCI To Bounds Up

Base on world history, when war happen share market will drop but this time Israeli army operation in GAZA did not drop the share market. The share market bull up! I just think, is this Israeli attack are one of the way to make share bull up in this crisis? After the attack start, oil price had go up and now still look like will go higher, due to this most of the oil & gas company share market price had go up.

At home Malaysia, KLCI is bounds up higher each day. CPO price did not go sky high but plantation company share especially IOICORP go sky high, the formula is look like incorrect. The bull may countinues for this week due to their are 2 major reason to cash out from share market, 1. is cash out for Kuala Tengganu Election and 2. Chinese New Year at end of this month. If this week not many retail traders buy in into share market, the bull run will countinues next week. So the basic idea is trap retail traders money.



Crisi is not end yet and Goverment is no money to help the economic the only option is use EPF money to buy up KLCI for someone to sale out they share in hand to cash out from share market and at the sametime windows dressing Malaysia economic before election come.

I think next stap to windows dressing the Malaysia economic is good is by speculate Ringgit. Singapore economic is bad but you see the exchange Ringgit with SinDollar is still high. What happen? I think Malaysia will devalue ringgit to show that CPO price is up and KLCI is bounds up. Export will show good value and export index sure go higher, thing look good but later we will face inflation. So don't keep too many ringgit, keep Gold is better.

Hopefully this bull run of KLCI did not trap many retail traders, we need to cash out follow all the big big fund.

Today's Market Preview (05-01-2009)

KLCI - It's Time To Jump Out From Share Market

Many fund manager is cash out from Market, soon or any time KLCI may drop to below 800 point. Base on the chart big money is Distributing to cash out from share market.

For retail traders it is time to run, last flight will be 20-Jan-2009

Today's Market Preview (02-01-2009)

KLCI - The Turning Point

KLCI close on 31-Dec-2008 at 876.75 point and had loss 647.94 point compare with highest in this year on 14-Jan-2008 ( at 1,524.69 point). Now the quation is when is the KLCI turning point?

Base on past history, KLCI had go through 6 major down turn as below:-

1. Start on: 30-06-1981 End on: 12-08-1982 Duration: *408 days Loss: 319.59 point
2. Start on: 09-02-1984 End on: 02-05-1986 Duration: 813 days Loss: 251.77 point
3. Start on: 10-08-1987 End on: 07-12-1987 Duration: 119 days Loss: 247.04 point
4. Start on: 05-01-1994 End on: 05-04-1994 Duration: 90 days Loss: 411.76 point
5. Start on: 26-02-1997 End on: 01-09-1998 Duration: *552 days Loss: 1017.61 point
6. Start on: 18-02-2000 End on: 10-04-2001 Duration: *417 days Loss: 473.48 point

We had hits most on 1997 crisis with a total loss of 1,017.61 point and recover after 552 days. If we take No.1, 5 and 6 to forecast KLCI turning point as below

1. Start on: 14-01-2008 End on: 19-07-2009 Duration: 552 day KLCI: 507.08
2. Start on: 14-01-2008 End on: 06-03-2009 Duration: 417 days KLCI: 690.00
3. Start on: 14-01-2008 End on: 25-02-2009 Duration: 408 days KLCI: 723.00
   

So base on the history, KLCI will start to recover at 1H2009! It is a good news for all.

However if we take total KLCI index loss to forecast the turn point, KLCI need to drop below 700 to had a bounds up recovery. If we hits same like 97 crisis, KLCI need to drop to 500 point.

Look like both forecast show KLCI will go down and not in bottom yet, so if you want to jump in into share market better wait untill 2H2009.