KLCI - The Turning Point

KLCI close on 31-Dec-2008 at 876.75 point and had loss 647.94 point compare with highest in this year on 14-Jan-2008 ( at 1,524.69 point). Now the quation is when is the KLCI turning point?

Base on past history, KLCI had go through 6 major down turn as below:-

1. Start on: 30-06-1981 End on: 12-08-1982 Duration: *408 days Loss: 319.59 point
2. Start on: 09-02-1984 End on: 02-05-1986 Duration: 813 days Loss: 251.77 point
3. Start on: 10-08-1987 End on: 07-12-1987 Duration: 119 days Loss: 247.04 point
4. Start on: 05-01-1994 End on: 05-04-1994 Duration: 90 days Loss: 411.76 point
5. Start on: 26-02-1997 End on: 01-09-1998 Duration: *552 days Loss: 1017.61 point
6. Start on: 18-02-2000 End on: 10-04-2001 Duration: *417 days Loss: 473.48 point

We had hits most on 1997 crisis with a total loss of 1,017.61 point and recover after 552 days. If we take No.1, 5 and 6 to forecast KLCI turning point as below

1. Start on: 14-01-2008 End on: 19-07-2009 Duration: 552 day KLCI: 507.08
2. Start on: 14-01-2008 End on: 06-03-2009 Duration: 417 days KLCI: 690.00
3. Start on: 14-01-2008 End on: 25-02-2009 Duration: 408 days KLCI: 723.00
   

So base on the history, KLCI will start to recover at 1H2009! It is a good news for all.

However if we take total KLCI index loss to forecast the turn point, KLCI need to drop below 700 to had a bounds up recovery. If we hits same like 97 crisis, KLCI need to drop to 500 point.

Look like both forecast show KLCI will go down and not in bottom yet, so if you want to jump in into share market better wait untill 2H2009.