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2012-06-22

12 reasons why a recession in the United States

Following the latest wave of disappointing economic data this morning, and with equity markets extending their losses this afternoon at US market, talk of the U.S. entering a new recession has picked up.
Michael “Mish” Shedlock, a long-time investor and author of Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis, published an article today explaining 12 reasons why a recession in the United States has either already arrived or will in short order.
Several factors were based on economic developments around the world, including the ongoing sovereign debt crisis is Europe and today’s worse than expected Chinese manufacturing report.
In addition, Mish characterized today’s Philadelphia Fed report – a leading measure of manufacturing activity in the U.S. – as “disastrous.”  The report’s diffusion index came in at negative 16.6 – far below the 0.0 consensus estimate among economists.
Mish’s full list is presented below:
  1. Europe is a disaster.
  2. US manufacturing is cooling rapidly
  3. China is cooling rapidly: China Manufacturing PMI 7-Month Low, Sharpest Decline in New Export Orders Since March 2009
  4. US Monetary policy is at best useless, but more likely net harmful, especially to those on fixed income.
  5. First year presidential politics are frequently recessionary
  6. US still needs fiscal tightening
  7. Unemployment insurance has expired for millions: 200,000 Lose Unemployment Benefits This Week, Nearly Half From California
  8. Self-Employment desperation: 100% of U.S. Jobs Added Since 2010 Have Been Self-Employment, Contractor, or Other Jobs Without Unemployment Insurance Benefits
  9. Last two jobs reports have been dismal: Another Payroll Disaster: Jobs +69,000, Employment Rate +.1 to 8.2%, April Jobs Revised Lower to +77,000; Long-term Unemployment +310,000
  10. The 4-week moving average of weekly unemployment claims is at the highest rate of the year, at 386,250.
  11. New home sales cannot gain significant traction: New Home Sales Hype vs. Reality
  12. Tax Armageddon

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