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2009-12-08

Phony Recovery Is As Good As A Real One

The official jobless rate in US fell from its 26-year high of 10.2% to a 26-year high of 10% had help push up the US Dollar value and gold price drop USD 48 per ounce now gold at USD 1156 per ounce. Elsewhere in the news, we find that bankers are lightening up – at least in their loans to speculators.

Friday saw the US Dollar (USD) turn around very quickly after the release of a much better than expected US November unemployment report,” notes Tom Tragett in the Forex briefing he writes each morning. “The USD did initially try to weaken as US equities futures surged on the news ahead of the Wall Street opening.

“The reason for that was that the market quickly assumed that higher equities equals lower dollar – the very thing I mentioned in Friday’s Daily Briefing. Well finally the correlation fell apart as the Dow and the Dollar both surged in tandem. “At the same time as the Dollar rose, Gold was smashed lower, as the price triggered stop losses through $1190, falling as low as $1167, ahead of technical support. However, the bounce was only brief as a fresh wave of long liquidation ensued. This saw the price trade under $1150 before lifting back to around $1160 into the New York close.

“The price fell again in Asian trading overnight, dipping under $1145 briefly before rallying into the London opening. The price of Gold looks vulnerable and given the time of the year we could see further extensions of this position liquidation. “From a technical perspective some analysts are talking about a possible dive lower to $1030. For that to happen we are going to have to see some seriously wholesale liquidation of long-term positions.

Base on the jobless rate it is still the highest in 26 years just only get a bit better but US banker make it into a big news and inform everyone to drop gold back into share market. So I think due to the Christmas is in this month US is hope to show they people about the economy recovery and need to push they sale on Christmas. For this month I think US market will be full of good news so look like share market is about to go higher for this coming Christmas.

A real recovery requires real savings, real investment, real jobs, and real increases in earnings (readers will recognise those as the same requirements for a durable boom in the stock market). As far as we can see at USl, they do not exist. But who cares? For most investors a phony recovery is as good as a real one.

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My investment with RM5,000 initial capital have been growing since 2005.I found the stock market appears confusing and complicated, but it is most definitely based on logic "supply and demand". However, the laws of supply and demand as observed in the markets do not behave as one would expect. To be an effective trader, there is a great need to understand how supply and demand can be interpreted under different market conditions and how to take advantage of this Off Market Transactions in KLSE.

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