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2009-12-28

2009 A Surprise Recovery Or Delay Great Depression

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At the beginning of 2009, we were prepared for the worst but hoped for the best. As it turned out, the economy and the financial market surprised on the upside. However the upside is due to world stimulus spending packages done by each government around the world to support the recovery so next year 2010 continues recovery will vary depend on stimulus spending fund plan. A early exit will cause the recovery to slow down or stop.

2010 may likely be volatile particularly after the devaluation of the Vietnam currency and Dubai World's request for a standstill on its debts. While the Dubai situation does not appear to be severe enough to inflict major damage on global equities and fears of a new round of financial crisis appear to have subsided, there could be new risks facing the post-crisis economy as asset bubbles are beginning to build up. 2009 recovery mainly is due to fiscal stimulus packages done all around the world so how far the fiscal to support the world market will be see on 2010. So far globally equities have reacted positively to the huge dosage of liquidity injection.

When all the liquidity injection run out will it be a Great Depression? Year 2009 had seen a surprise recovery and 2010 will be a year as economic recovery becomes more firmly established.

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