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2009-11-24

Gold In Real Bull Market, A Warming Sign Of Share Market

Gold rose to a new high – USD1,146 and yesterday it’s hitting more new highs above USD1,160 per once. Whatever else may be going on, there’s a real bull market in gold. It’s a bull market that began 2 years ago. Today, a quick glance at a chart shows gold looking a little toppy. Expect a correction. But remember, this is a bull market. In a bull market, we buy the dips.
























I just read a report and this is a word in it “Take Your Gains,” says Forbes. And once you’re out of stocks, stay out until the bear market is over... probably at around 3,000 – 5,000 on the Dow. When the price of gold equals the price of the Dow, it will be time to switch.















Look like share from US will likely to drop as a 2nd sub-prime crisis. As we know gold is a trusted investment or as a protection of wealth when stock market drop and now the gold price keep going up not because due to US dollar value drop but part from high demand. We see China and India keep buying gold and I think sure something will happen soon and this big country is finding a protection by hide in gold market.

By doing some anaylisis on history, the bull market of 1998-99 lasted about 18 months (from October 1998 to January 2000). This matches the duration of the preceding bear market of 1997-98 which also lasted 18 months (from February 1997 to September 1998). The current bull market started in March 2009 and it's now about 8 months old. The preceding bear market of 2008 started in January 2008 & hit a low in October 2008. If we take the October 2008 low as the end of the bear market of 2008, then the 2008 bear market lasted 10 months. If the duration of the current bull market is similar to the duration of the preceding bear market (like in 1998-99 bull market & the preceding 1997-98 bear market), then the current bull market may still continue for another 2 months.

By looking the history and gold bull market I think likely something may happen in stock market in short term may be 4 months from now after 2010 Chinese New Year in Feb. So if this really happen it mean we only had a vary short time to make profit and pull out all the money in share market and buy into gold market.

1 comments:

Anonymous December 7, 2009 at 11:54 AM  

It drops 4% today from last Friday,from PBB rate. Globally, the Gold extends a retreat from a record, dropping for a third day, on speculation that an improving US economy will result in higher interest rates.
What do you think?

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My investment with RM5,000 initial capital have been growing since 2005.I found the stock market appears confusing and complicated, but it is most definitely based on logic "supply and demand". However, the laws of supply and demand as observed in the markets do not behave as one would expect. To be an effective trader, there is a great need to understand how supply and demand can be interpreted under different market conditions and how to take advantage of this Off Market Transactions in KLSE.

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