Dubai Sends Markets into Panic Selling

Probably a good thing Malaysia markets were closed at Friday. In Europe, the Dubai affair caused the biggest drop in 7 months. European banks have lent $40 billion to Dubai. Emerging markets lost 2.1% on Friday. Worldwide, the loss was 1.5%, even gold lost a little ground too. “People are panicking: this whole process counters everything that the rulers have been saying and the way it has been communicated before the holidays is confusing,” said one hedge fund manager from a report I read today morning.

But what is the real meaning of what is going on in Dubai? It’s the story of the collapse of the financial industry. Dubai has no oil...no natural resources...and no real industry. The rulers tried to turn it into a financial center. Entirely financed by debt. And now finance itself is falling apart.

However since we are in the recovery road and next month will be December, most of the windows dressing will be done by company so I think the share market still will end this year with a good number. Dec traditionally has been a profitable month as far as the Malaysia bourse is concerned. Between 1987 and 2008, the benchmark index was up in 19 years, translating to a high probability rate of 86%. The average return made during the month over the last 22 years stood at 5.1%. In the two most recent years, the FBM KLCI posted a monthly increase of 3.4% (in Dec 07) and 1.2% (in Dec 08). Thus, if history repeats itself, then investors will get a chance for a quick ride to lift further their portfolio performance ahead.

Today's Market Preview (26-11-2009)

GLD-C1 Underlying Share Close At USD 116.62

This morning or US market close, GLD-C1 underlying share close at USD 116.62 up 1.89 point with 1.65% and base on the rate with premium 2% GLD-C1 is above RM0.26. This covertion also need to take in currency exchange rate between USD vs RM.

Now gold price is USD 1,180 per ounce and base on the chart, gold is in overbrought zone but Asia still buying a lot of gold so the price likely to be supported till end of the year. Up to now really did not know how far the gold bull run may end.

Gold Price Go Higher, GLD-C1 Will Follow

Gold price is open high across Asia and yesterday GLD-C1 underlying share SPDR GLD is close at 114.73 and at 10.30am GLD-C1 is at RM0.245 with is 2% premium. If gold hits USD1,200 per ounce SPDR GLD will likely at USD120 so cover to GLD-C1 the price will be at RM0.29 with 2% premium. A 18.4% upside potential.










If want to know more about gold investment news, welcome to visit my gold investment blog at http://malaysiagoldinvestment.blogspot.com/

Today's Market Preview (25-11-2009)

Profit Making Idea On PBBANK

Base on last 3 years data PBBANK share price always move up from Dec till next year Feb and after financial report roll out the share will drop due to bonus issued. This patten also happen during end of 2008 where economic is in crisis, so if the same pattern happen again in year 2010 PBBANK may hits RM11.60 before drop to 1st support line at RM10.50. To get maximum profit by this patten we can buy in into PBBANK Structured Warrants with America style and low premium.

Unfortunately available warrant in PBBANK are all Non-Collateralised European Style, it mean the issuer can drop the premium to negative so the only choice we had is buy warrant with low premium. All available warrant in PBBANK is as below:-

1. PBBANK-CJ, Premium: 0% Price: RM0.82
2. PBBANK-CK, Premium: 2% Price: RM0.28
3. PBBANK-CL, Premium: 2% Price: RM0.165

So I think just buy one out of 3 may make profit by end of Feb next year.

Gold In Real Bull Market, A Warming Sign Of Share Market

Gold rose to a new high – USD1,146 and yesterday it’s hitting more new highs above USD1,160 per once. Whatever else may be going on, there’s a real bull market in gold. It’s a bull market that began 2 years ago. Today, a quick glance at a chart shows gold looking a little toppy. Expect a correction. But remember, this is a bull market. In a bull market, we buy the dips.
























I just read a report and this is a word in it “Take Your Gains,” says Forbes. And once you’re out of stocks, stay out until the bear market is over... probably at around 3,000 – 5,000 on the Dow. When the price of gold equals the price of the Dow, it will be time to switch.















Look like share from US will likely to drop as a 2nd sub-prime crisis. As we know gold is a trusted investment or as a protection of wealth when stock market drop and now the gold price keep going up not because due to US dollar value drop but part from high demand. We see China and India keep buying gold and I think sure something will happen soon and this big country is finding a protection by hide in gold market.

By doing some anaylisis on history, the bull market of 1998-99 lasted about 18 months (from October 1998 to January 2000). This matches the duration of the preceding bear market of 1997-98 which also lasted 18 months (from February 1997 to September 1998). The current bull market started in March 2009 and it's now about 8 months old. The preceding bear market of 2008 started in January 2008 & hit a low in October 2008. If we take the October 2008 low as the end of the bear market of 2008, then the 2008 bear market lasted 10 months. If the duration of the current bull market is similar to the duration of the preceding bear market (like in 1998-99 bull market & the preceding 1997-98 bear market), then the current bull market may still continue for another 2 months.

By looking the history and gold bull market I think likely something may happen in stock market in short term may be 4 months from now after 2010 Chinese New Year in Feb. So if this really happen it mean we only had a vary short time to make profit and pull out all the money in share market and buy into gold market.

FBM KLCI May Move Sideways In This Week

This week will be short with Raya Haji is at Friday and some fund had cash out since last week for Raya Haji holidays so this week and next week may likely see FBM KLCI move sideways. For me I think market consolidate will be a good entry point to buy in good quality share specialty banking sector. With Gold market in bull run so share market will have some support till end of this year.
























FBM KLCI likely to hits above 1,300 by end of this year and to do it all banking company in FBM KLCI need to bound up specialty the top 5.

Today's Market Preview (20-11-2009)

Maxis Become FBM KLCI Member Today

Maxis’ absolute market capitalisation of RM35.63 billion (at RM4.75 reference price) would make it the sixth-largest stock on Bursa Malaysia. Maxis’ weight at 2.7% pales next to the top five capitalised stocks —

1. CIMB 11.85%,
2. Sime Darby Bhd 10.39%,
3. PUBLIC BANK BHD 9.85%,
4. MALAYAN BANKING BHD 9.25% and
5. TENAGA NASIONAL BHD 6.95%.

Maxis’ weight on the FBM KLCI is also below Axiata Group Bhd (4.98%), but is above TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD 2.08% and DIGI.COM BHD 1.68%, according to OSK’s estimates in the Nov 12 note. Maxis will replace MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD (MAS) on the 30-member FBM KLCI today so if Maxis share jump high FBM KLCI will be supported.

AXIATA 3Q09 Financial Report Will Out On 30 Nov

Most of the fund invest in Axiata had pull out to invest into Maxis and dual to this reason Axiata share have drop below RM3.00 before rebounds and by end of this month financial report 3Q will be out. If the result is positive after all the fund invest in Maxis take profit and buy back into Axiata sure Axiata share price will bounds up high along with good news from 3Q financial report.

For me to maximum profit I had buy in into Axiata warrants with better gearing to make profit if this buy back happen.

MAXIS Will Re-listing Today

Maxis is re-listing today in Malaysia Share Market and tomorrow will be in FBM KLCI index so for FBM KLCI index hits 1,300 Maxis share need to be up. Most of the % share is hold by PNB, EPF and Tabung Haji so likely they will sale out the share by this week or next week using A sale to B, B sale to A to speculated the share price moving up.

You may see this activity by look into off market deal, however at end of the day how many share sale out to retail and foreign investor in the open market is the key point for Maxis share to go up more.

Base on the chart, FBM KLCI index is moving sideways and with the new member add in the index may have some momentum.

MRCB 3Q09 surprises market

3Q09 surprises market

1. 3Q09 result exceeded market expectations, driven by construction earnings
2. New CEO promoted from within
3. Maintain BUY rating and RM1.80 TP (ex-rights).

3Q09 exceed market expectations. 3Q09 net profit was RM10m, bringing 9M09 net profit to RM22m. This was within our forecast but exceeded market expectations. 3Q09 earnings were driven by higher recognition of projects from its c.RM2bn construction orderbook such as EDL and Permai Hosptial in Johor. Construction margin was 5.5% vs 8.1% in 2Q09, but should normalize to 8-9% as EDL (13% completed) and KL Sentral construction projects (Lot A, 348, E and G) filter through. With no major launches in the pipeline (Lot D is scheduled for 2Q10), 3Q09 property earnings remained subdued at RM1m vs RM3m in 2Q09.

New CEO. MRCB has appointed Mohamed Razeek Hussain, aged 51, as CEO effective 1 December 2009. He is currently the COO of MRCB, which provides some assurance of his familiarity with the company. He has over 20 years experience in the property sector, having worked for Sime UEP, Land & General and E&O. Current CEO Shahril will be CIO of EPF but remain a director of MRCB.

Stronger newsflow. We expect strong newsflow for MRCB in the coming months, including (i) sale of Lot E comprising 5 office towers at a new benchmark price of RM1,200 psf or implied cap
rate of 6%, ( ii) chunky contract wins in 2010 related to LRT extensions and Bakun overland cables, and (iii) acquisition of valuable federal government land using proceeds from its
proposed rights issue.

Maintain BUY, RM1.80 TP. RM0.70 of our SOP value is supported by the KL Sentral franchise. The proposed rights issue is positive because it implies MRCB may be securing significant land deals and/or construction contracts. Besides the Jalan Ampang and Jalan Cochrane land, MRCB alluded to land banking of small and large pieces of land potentially in KL Sentral and adjoining its highways. The price of the 1-for-2 rights will be announced on 19 November.

Today's Market Preview (18-11-2009)

GLD-C1 Is Going Up Higher

Gold price again hitting up to new history high. Malysia gold price hits RM123.29 per gram yesterday is the highest price since 2005. However when the price go up abnormally we better be-careful due to may be some speculation is happening. Like crude oil, before the crisis happen crude oil had hits history high like never ending so thing will go up and down when gold drop sure something happen and sure share market will effected.



















GLD-C1 is base on GLD NYSE, base on the chart they is still some room for it to go higher in short term may be by end of Nov. I buy in during GLD-C1 at RM0.195 and plan to hold untill end of Nov, now already 20.5% profit.

Today's Market Preview (17-11-2009)

MRCB Share Likely To Bounds Up In This Week

Base on the chart, share had been cumulative by someone so the share is ready to bounds up for someone to make big profit. Good news will be out anytime.

Maxis Will Be List In FBM KLCI

This week Maxis share will list on Malaysia stock exchange on Thursday 19 Nov 2009 and the next day, Friday will list in the FBM KLCI, the % of weight still not know yet but I think it will be at top 5 share. For FBM KLCI to hits 1,300 by year end Maxis share weight on FBM KLCI must be big. Up to date base on fund flow out from Malaysia, FDI is not buying this type of windows dressing on Malaysia economic by speculative FBM KLCI index so it also mean the real economic of Malaysia only goverment know.

However to benefit from FBM KLCI move higher, share like Bursa and Bursa warrant likely to bounds up. The sign of FBM KLCI will move up will be Bursa vol move high without price going up to0 high.

This week also be economic report such as 3Q09 GDP release, the Consumer Price Index for Oct and the international reserves as at 13 Nov, will all due on Friday 20 Nov 2009. Financial result announcement for this week will be Parkson, KLCC Property, MRCB, RHB Capital, WCT, BAT, YTL Power, Telekom, Plus and PPB. Likely all will be good news.

Today's Market Preview (13-11-2009)

GLD-C1 Hits high At RM0.215

GLD-C1 is gold warrant base on SPDR GOLD SHARES. GLD-C1 will be expire at 7 APR 2010 with left 146 days which make GLD-C1 not in investor radar, however gold price usually hits high in 4Q of the year and drop to lowest by end of 1Q of the year. So GLD-C1 only will be good value by this year end and since gold price is making new high each week I think GLD-C1 will go higher in Dec 2009.








For me GLD-C1 is only a short term investment, keep more that this year may likely to lose your profit due to gold price may drop or correction by 1Q 2010. Now invest into gold also see some risk and hopefully gold price did not follow last few years oil price move will a Tsunami price drop. If this Tsunami happen in gold price I think share market will also effected hard.

FBM KLCI Drop But The Regional Market Up

Yesterday FBM KLCI drop but the regional market up. The profit taking activities is mostly done by foreign fund due to they need to cash out for Christmas next month. Base on the chart, FBM KLCI still in bull run to hits 1,300 by end of Nov so it still had room to profit making in short term.

China has released its industrial production figures for October which showed y/y growth of 16.1%. Retail sales were up 16.2% y/y in October. Both figures are higher-than-expected and confirms that China’s economic growth remains well balanced on the consumer and producer side of the economy. While there is very little data releases in other parts of the world today the
markets might find direction from the positive Chinese data.

FBM KLCI today may likely benefit from this data too.

Today's Market Preview (11-11-2009)

AXIATA Is Moving Back To Above RM3.00

After axiata hits low at RM2.90 the share had keep on below RM3.00 for a flew day and base on RSI 14 days it below 30% it mean oversold. Now the share bound up again but if you invest in mother share will less profit. I had brought Axiata-CC during the price at RM0.135 where the mother share is at around RM2.95, so yesterday Axiata-CC close at RM0.155 with 14.81% of profit.

Now I think warrant is a tool that can maximum the profit in short term with a small increasing in mother share as long as the market still moving up I think invest in warrant is vary mach profitable.

FBM KLCI Likely To Hits New High In Nov

Base on the chart, FBM KLCI is moving up to hits new high above 1,300 in this month of Nov. 14 days RSI still showing at 50% so still have room for it to move above 70%. As about year end, market move positively with all the good news flow out from US even some of it look not so good.

As market move higher, risk of correction will be more but in Malaysia if you buy Bank warrant sure you had made some profit. With latest development, plantation share may effected so I think better group up the money to invest in banking share will give maximum profit in short term.

Today's Market Preview (09-11-2009)

No More Cheap Sugar For Malaysian

Billionaire Robert Kuok surprise exit last week from the trade that his family has controlled since the 1940s is raising concern that the days of stable sugar prices in the country may be numbered. Sugar is a controlled commodity in Malaysia and now is in government hand of control or I can said in BN hand.

From The Straits Times said "The government has always been able to count on billionaire Robert Kuok to keep domestic sugar prices steady even in times of great volatility in world markets." make me feel that sugar price next year will go up and all consumable product will go up too. Like it or no next year as a Malaysian life will be vary tough.

Robert Kuok is well-known as the Sugar King, so it become rich is because sugar and by logic now in government hand so government may make profit on it. I'm thinking if next year government increase the sugar price who will benefit on it? Like TNB ever year they said loss how many GWatt and need increasing price but ever year end the profit is good. Now government already said this business is tough same like TNB story so government already give you sign that no more cheap sugar for all Malaysian.

In The Straits Times also said“He did the gentlemanly thing by selling it to a government agency so it would make it easier for the government to dismantle the monopoly,” I think the monopoly is change hand to government. Hopefully a better future may happen.

Today's Market Preview (06-11-2009)

Today's Market Preview (05-11-2009).bmp

FBM KLCI Is About To Move Higher In This Month

Base on the chart FBM KLCI index is about to move higher to history high in this month. Only by banking sector the FBM KLCI index already can hits 1280 (2nd resistant level) in short term.

MRCB Is Forming A Bullish Pattern

Base on chart anaylisi MRCB is forming a bullish pattern to hits RM1.45 or more. This share may likely speculated to hits RM1.60 in short term. This few day they are a few share had been speculated till suspended by bursa may be MRCB also will be the one.

Malaysia Gold Hits Record High Above RM 118 Per Gram

Gold swept to a record high above US$1,080 an ounce on Tuesday, Nov 3 defying dollar strength as the International Monetary Fund's 200 tonne sale of gold to India's central bank boosted sentiment toward the metal. The IMF sale, part of an agreement to sell about an eighth of the Fund's stock, fueled speculation that other governments -- including Beijing -- may be ready to diversify their reserves even at near record prices.

In this month India and China become net buyer of Gold even the price have go up high. Base on chart analysis, since gold price rally RSI did not drop below 50 where it is oversold zone. This mean investor keep buying gold even the price is high and for gold price to drop below USD 1,000 will be unlikely in 4 months time.

Base on gold price history, the price always up and if you take beginning of the year and end of the year, gold price return always more that 4%. Only in this few year since 2007, gold price profit is average 6% so it this investment is better that FD and EPF. I personally really did not know how come EPF pay dividend lower that gold.

Gold investment is a vary stable profitable tool and long you keep your gold better price it will be in future. 1st time I buy gold is RM98.38/g now already RM117.28 19.21% profit in 2 years.

Public Bank Gold Investment Account as at 04/11/09 11:20 AM

	Selling Price	Buying Price
1 gram	RM 122.0400	RM 117.2800

Today's Market Preview (04-11-2009)

OilCorp - Luck Is Needed In Share Investment

Today OilCorp suddenly jump 34.6% to RM0.175 and I just sold my share at RM0.170. It was luck to make this profit. I had buy in into OilCorp at 29 Sept at RM0.17 and after that the share price is drop more lower so at 26 Oct I brought again at RM0.125 to make it my average around RM0.143.

It was lucky to sale on today to take some profit. Sometime luck is needed to make profit in share.

A Same Pattern Form Between KNM And Genting Singapore

Base on the chart analysis on Genting Singapore, I found that this share is forming a patten same like KNM 2 months ago.
























For Genting SP the major support line is at SD1.00 and for KNM last 2 months ago the major support line is at RM0.70 so when this support line broken KNM share jump up high the next day to form a bullish pattern till now. May be when Genting SP broken major support line will bounds up like what happen in KNM 2 months ago.























Will Genting SP form and follow KNM chart pattern? What we can do is wait and see.

Today FBM KLCI Likely To Bounds Up A Bit

If you do chart anaylisis on DJ index and S&P 500, you will know the following day some positive news may likely to flow out due to both index is drop into over sold or hits lower line. So sometime I think news flow out is controled to make sure someone may take some profit or give time for they to position thereself for the index to drop or bounds.
























Today FBM KLCI may bounds up a bit likely due to positive news flow out from US and also the chart pattern is due for a bounds up. However the bounds up may no so big.

FBM KLCI Up Or Down In Nov?

This will be an interesting week to study our FBM KLCI stock market pattern from a technical perspective as we enter into the month of Nov. As we know black OCT is not happen this year so if analysis back to year 2007, black Oct did not happen and Nov was consolidated before enter into Dec 2007. Will this happen again in 2009? If it do happen again so this month of Nov is a good entry into the share market.
























Base on the chart, FBM KLCI will be either a resumption of its uptrend is underway or an extended consolidation is already in the works. FBM KLCI fell for the first time in four weeks to close at 1,243.23 last Friday, a weekly loss of 23.9-point or 1.9%. Plunging in tandem were the FBM 70 Index (-2.8%) and the FBM ACE Index (-0.8%) as profit-taking activity picked up. Although losers outnumbered gainers on four days, there was little panic selling with daily average volume easing to 899.5m shares (from 1.0b units) valued at RM1.1b (RM1.3b previously).

The 1st support line will be around 1,221 and 2nd support line will be 1,190. As FBM KLCI drop near 1,221 I think panic selling will happen and I think Fund Manager will make it happen, so that profit can be make during year end windows dressing. However, we can see now FBM KLCI index is almost fully supported by banking sector so if your investment hide inside banking sector will be safe. I already hide most of my investment in bank warrant which till now still in profit even the market is in red.

I personally think KLCI FBM will only bounds up in last week of Nov if all the bad news from US flow out. Nov will be a good entry point to invest into quality share when they price dip into red due to panic selling. For me I always buy when the market is in red sea.