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2009-07-31

Today's Market Preview (31-07-2009)

2009-07-30

Crude oil prices are under pressure will affected KNM share















Crude oil prices are under pressure, driven down by a combination of factors:
  1. The first is what we believe to be a bearish API inventory reading.
  2. The second is weaker US equity markets and the stronger dollar.
  3. The third is the widely anticipated CFTC decisions regarding speculative positions in US commodity futures market.

A decision by the CFTC is expected within the next few weeks, which might see the size of speculative positions in commodity markets which investment funds may hold be restricted. API crude oil inventories, for the week ending 24 July, increased 4,067K barrels despite a 1% fall in refinery utilization to 83%. Declining refinery utilization and a rise in crude inventory signal weak crude oil demand in the US.

Although US gasoline inventories fell marginally, by 47K barrels, distillate fuel inventories continues to grow, rising 116K. This is a clear signal that US industrial demand for energy remains depressed. Surprisingly, US API data showed crude oil imports increased 199K barrels last week, which we believe supported front-month ICE Brent crude oil.
























If any outcome of Crude oil price speculated KNM share price will affected but due to still on going project I think KNM will have a strong support on RM0.70 level, drop below this level will be unlikely. Base on the chart, KNM price may drop below RM0.80 above RM0.70 before bound up so for me below RM0.80 is a good entry point.

Gold price already affected by stronger US dollar and I think soon crude oil price may drop due to the same reason. Any how share price also need rest before next bull run again.

Today's Market Preview (30-07-2009)

FBM-KLCI drop together with all the Asia share market
























Yesterday FBM-KLCI drop together with all the Asia share market due to the news Chinese media had reported that Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China CONSTRUCTION Bank were capping their 2009 lending targets, a move that would slow down credit growth. Asian markets retreated on July 29, rattled by a 5% pullback of the Shanghai Composite Index on reports that China’s two biggest state-owned commercial banks were restricting their lending. This reason is use by fund manager to take profit and I think profit taking activity may continues because they need some cash for coming Hari Raya on Sept.

Beside share market, Gold price also affected, after trading in a tight range for a few days, gold broke lower yesterday. Selling came on the back of
  1. Weak investment demand, and selling in the physical market;
  2. Dollar strength, which pushed the greenback from just below USD1.4300 to as low as USD1.4130 yesterday.
The trigger for this rally in the dollar was a much weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence data reading (down m/m in July). After yesterday’s sharp fall, weak long positions could be hesitant to re-enter the market. Gold support is at USD932 and USD926, with resistance at USD949 and USD964.

Now the share market and gold market will drop, so for me I think it is a good time to enter this two investment tool.

2009-07-29

Today's Market Preview (29-07-2009)

Foreign Shareholding Still Low In The Market

FBM KLCI is continues to make new high for this year as close at 1,172 yesterday. The major contribution is from Banking and Plantation as this two sector already cover half of the index weight.

Compare with regional, Malaysia recovery is still low and ringgit weakens against most currencies only strengthened against the US dollar. All this is a sign of foreign investor still not choosing Malaysia as a investment target compare Singapore and Indonesian. Like our banking system, foreign investor had put back their money because of the crisis and now they have return but still low compare before the crisis. As at end June foreign shareholding in
  1. BCHB is 33.2% ( increase from 32% as at Dec 2008)
  2. Malayan Banking is 10.76% as at 17 July 2009
  3. Public Bank is 24.9% ( drop from 33.1% a year earlier )
  4. RHB Bank is 5.2%
  5. AMMB Holdings parent of the AmBank is 28.4% as at March 2009 ( drop from 36.9% a year earlier )























Now is about to end July 2009 and only 5 months before we enter the year 2010 as a recovery year for the hold world, for Malaysia economic to move higher and for us as a retail investor to make more money government need to make sure the foreign investor to come back more to Malaysia and if it do FBM-KLCI may hits over 1,500 point in next year.

For me I think invest into Banking system and plantation share will make profit and if the share is too expensive try buy in they warrants. Till now foreign investor no yet fully enter into Malaysia market and if they do the index will fly high.

























Plantation is not yet fully recovery

























Banking system is about to fully recover

2009-07-28

Again EPF Loan Out RM5bn, This Time Is Prokhas!?

A government agency which is administrating two schemes under the first economic stimulus package is in talks with the employees’ pension fund for a RM5 billion, a business daily said.

The Malaysian Reserve, citing an unidentifed source today, said the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) was ready to fund the loan at an undisclosed rate to Prokhas, the government-owned special purpose vehicle.

The source added that Prokhas was also looking at other financing options including government bonds, private debt securities or a term loan that may give more competitive rates.

Malaysia announced its first stimulus package of RM60 billion in March to shore up the export-reliant economy against the global economic crisis.

Prokhas manages two schemes under the package and was allocated 5 billion ringgit each, known as Working Capital Guarantee Scheme and the Industry Restructuring Loan Scheme, which is under the Ministry of Finance.

vs EPF

EPF’s talks with Prokhas may draw some criticism, as loans to government agencies and corporations have in the past been called bailouts for poorly performing local companies by critics and the resurgent opposition.

In 2008, the government said it would transfer RM5 billion from the EPF to state owned fundmanager Valuecap to be invested in undervalued Malaysian stocks.




Click here About Prokhas

Today's Market Preview (28-07-2009)

Crude oil pricescould break above USD70 in a broader rally in the equity markets.

Crude oil prices barreled above USD65 last week and jumped above USD68 on Friday 24 July. With a weaker dollar expected this week, prices are likely to remain above USD65 and could break above USD70 in a broader rally in the equity markets.

Oil continues to trade on expectations of a global economic recovery rather than the current fundamentals. Oil inventories in the United States have declined by nearly 19 million barrels since early June but are still at elevated levels according to U.S. Energy Department data. On the downside, ongoing discussions by U.S. regulators about limiting on commercial interests in the commodity markets, including oil, have the potential to precipitate a widespread investor panic about such pending regulatory action, which could cause a sharp price decline. If investors preemptively curtail their positions, oil price could begin to reflect the weak near-term fundamentals.

This probably will not happen in the near term. Meanwhile investors remain interested in oil, keeping prices firm.

2009-07-27

Malaysia Big Mac Is The Cheapest In US Dollar

The Big Mac Index is published by The Economist as an informal way of measuring the purchasing power parity (PPP) between two currencies and provides a test of the extent to which market exchange rates result in goods costing the same in different countries. It "seeks to make exchange-rate theory a bit more digestible".

The index takes its name from the Big Mac, a hamburger sold at McDonald's restaurants.

In Malaysia we all enjoy Big Mac is the cheapest in USD. This index also show that Malaysia Ringgit is undervalue again US Dollar and will help Malaysia export market.

http://jambanwangi.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/bigmac.jpg

Today's Market Preview (27-07-2009)

Buying Gold Opportunity In This Week

The GOLD PRICE rose USD15.60 last week to close the week at USD952.80, but on Comex today it closed down USD1.70. Gold smashed through USD940 like the Jackson through Hooker's Union army at Chancellorsville, then ran to USD954, the next resistance. It couldn't quite clear that mark, but has another chance next week, and a chance to clear USD968. Even if this rally is destined to fail at USD1,000, it's virtually certain to reach USD980.

This week gold might correct, but not lower than USD930. In fact, I don't believe we will ever see gold drop below USD909 again. Malaysia gold price start this week with RM109 per gram if currency USD/RM value is the same like last week so when gold price dip so same will happen to Malaysia gold price and this is the opportunity to buy and keep some gold.

Last year we still can see 916 gold price lest than RM100 per gram but now I think this price will become history. Over all gold always moving up but slow compare share market.

2009-07-26

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Breakdown



This is the breakdown of KLCI 100 share on the weight in FBM-KLCI for better analysis reference before buy in any share.

2009-07-25

Crude Oil Price May Have Been Speculated

Crude oil price may have been speculated base on a report from US the WTI crude oil historical ATM implied volatility has fallen from a peak at 109% in December 2008, to 47% this week. It may hover around these levels in the short to medium-term as the summer lull continues. With lower volatility the incentive to raise production levels have risen. This could maintain pressure on crude oil prices given the still weak macroeconomic fundamentals.

Oil Refinery Explosion | Oil Pump Jack | Big Spring Texas

With lower crude oil volatility, producers’ total marginal cost of producing the extra barrel of oil could decrease. Marginal cost is composed of direct marginal cost and an opportunity cost of producing now rather then later. With lower volatility it is believe the opportunity cost also decline. But apart from lower volatility, a continued drawdown of crude oil inventory in the US might add to the incentive to produce more crude oil. US gulf coast crack spread has risen from $3.142/bbl on July 13th to $6.785/bbl yesterday,creating further incentive for increased refinery production. This should result in a drawdown of crude oil inventories. Over the past few weeks we have seen a shift from a buildup in crude oil inventory in the US to a build-up in refined product inventory.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/images/magazines/arabianbusiness.com/web/Oil-barrels33_thumb.jpg

However, even the decline in crude oil inventory is not an indication of a rise in demand. US refined product demand remains weak and inventories high. As a result we still see the upside of crude oil prices limited above USD69/bbl, so need to understand here is crude oil inventory low may because it keep in the refinery but most of the report only written on crude oil inventory is low to speculated the oil price.

Be careful when you what to invest in oil base service company in Bursa Malaysia because oil price may drop when all the refinery is in high inventories.

Related Articles:-
  1. Crude Oil Price Is Getting Stronger

2009-07-24

IOI has proposed a 1-for-15 rights issue

Rights issue.
IOI has proposed a 1-for-15 rights issue of up to 420.99m shares at RM2.90 per share. The maximum proposed number of rights shares was derived after taking into consideration the potential enlarged share capital arising from its
  1. Employee Share Option Scheme (ESOS) (95.0m shares);
  2. conversion of remaining US$99.0m CB II (74.6m shares); and
  3. conversion of remaining US$563.5m CB III (168.0m shares).
Target completion is 2HY09 subject to approval by Securities Commission, Bursa Malaysia, and EGM.


Base on HWangDBS the Target prise could be diluted to RM4.10.
We were surprised at the size of the rights issue (only 129.7m shares net of 291.2m share buyback in the current FY), while the group’s net gearing as at 3QFY09 (incl. ST investments and MI) was still a decent 37.2%. Assuming the rights issue takes into account the exercise of CB II (already in the money) and ESOS (CB III is still far out of the money at RM11.00 exercise price), then IOI would issue 409.8m shares. This could dilute HwangDBS target price
to RM4.10 from RM4.40.

No specific purpose.
The group’s stated purpose for the rights issue was to fund capex, investment opportunities and debt repayment (depending on the final issue size). HwangDBS report suspect that the proceeds could be employed to fund new planting capex at the group’s Indonesian states.

Today's Market Preview (24-07-2009)

2009-07-23

Today's Market Preview (23-07-2009)

IOICORP Just Broken RM4.80 Level
























IOICorp is about to go higher after broken RM4.80 level. Base on the chart, next level is RM5.50 however the movement still affected by CPO price but now the CPO is drop.

2009-07-22

The Reason Why KLCI Surges To Fresh Year High

Blue chips rallied in the morning session on July 21, sending the FBM KLCI to a fresh year high of 1,153.94, with Bursa among the best performers among key Asian markets. The reason behind Bursa Malaysia surges to fresh year high is mainly because it ware base on 30 share compare 100 share for old KLSE index.

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is made up of the 30 largest listed companies by market value, with at least a 15% free float and minimum 10% annual turnover of free-float shares.
























Analysis by sectors weightage

KLCI:
  1. Banking 25.2%
  2. Plantation 14.8%
  3. Transport 11.1%
  4. Utilities 9.5%
  5. Telco 8.1%
FBM KLCI
  1. Banking 33.7%
  2. Plantation 18.7%
  3. Utilities 11.2%
  4. Gaming 9.9%
  5. Telco 9.3%
In FBM KLCI just only 2 sector bank and plantation already cover 52% weightage so it mean to short KLCI high just only need to push up bank or plantation share.

Other than this, 10 counters which have a total over 70% KLCI weightage is:-

  1. Commerce ( Najib Brother company) highest weightage 10.1%
  2. Maybank
  3. Public Bank
  4. Sime
  5. IOI
  6. Genting (Gaming sector! sure make money share, but it is halal for Muslim to buy?)
  7. Resorts
  8. Axiata
  9. Tenaga
  10. MISC
For KLCI to fly high Malaysia government just need to make sure top 5 counters perform well so compare old KLCI the news system is mach more easy and in addition Commerce bring 10.1% weightage to KLCI so sure it will make the job more easy.

7 sectors not in FBM-KLCI is:-
  1. Building materials
  2. Construction
  3. Hotels
  4. Insurance
  5. Property
  6. Timber
  7. Technology
so it also mean these 7 sector drop to bottom or zero manufacture ( worker no job ) will not affected KLCI index as long as your money keep in bank.

New technical analysis is needed to invest in KLCI, the old type invest skill by using KLCI a guide line may not complete to give a good picture about Malaysia economic so when you want to invest into the share market may need to analysis sector by sector.

Malaysia surely "boleh" Malaysia is using the concept is win the game by change the game rules follow what you want. Sure win.

Today's Market Preview (22-07-2009)

2009-07-21

Today's Market Preview (21-07-2009)

KNM Move Along With Crude Oil Price

























KNM is out from KLCI index since early of July however foreign fund still like this share. Base on the chart KNM may form a W before moving up and this situation is fully base on oil price. Since April crude oil price had been speculative.

Many market observers had expected WTI crude oil prices to decline last week. Instead prices rose to USD63.36, their highest price level in eight trading days. While the global crude oil market may face ample supplies, inventories may be mostly of the heavy sour crude type, which is less desirable.

The higher benchmark prices for light sweet crude in Dubai and other market centers may represent tighter supplies for light crude. Crude oil inventories in the U.S. meanwhile continue to decline, while gasoline and distillate stocks are increasing. Prices may continue to show strength this week. WTI crude oil prices may move to USD65, with a possible spike to USD67 not out of the question.

Any increase in crude oil price will benefit to KNM share price.

GPACKET Silent In The Lamp
























GPACKET re-silent after March speculation. Since the beginning of KLCI bound up GPACKET is silent along the way. This is a affect of speculation done by big fund during the news about P1Max at march.

However the businuss is profitable just now the big fund is busy with KLCI recovery so GPACKET is temporary out from the screen.

2009-07-20

Public Bank 2Q2009 Hits Net Profit At RM610m

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rBWatSEEDSI/SPAkHa6QueI/AAAAAAAAAAc/Ydr9BCAHt3Y/s320/publicbank.jpg

Public Bank posted net profit of RM610.74 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2009, up from the RM593.535 million a year ago. It declared an interim dividend of 30% per share totaling RM777 million.

Announcing the improved set of results on July 20, it said that revenue eased to RM2.35 billion from RM2.515 billion. Earnings per share were 17.7 sen versus 17.69 sen.

For the first half, net profit was RM1.2 billion versus RM1.31 billion. Revenue was RM4.78 billion compared with RM5.15 billion.

Public Bank chairman Tan Sri Dr Teh Hong Piow said net profit of RM1.2 billion in the first half of 2009 as compared to RM1.3 billion a year ago had then included a one-off goodwill payment of RM200 million from ING Asia/Pacific Ltd (ING) in January 2008 in respect of the group’s regional bancassurance distribution alliance with ING.

“Excluding the non-recurring one-off goodwill payment, the group’s underlying operating net profit improved by 3% over the same period in 2008 despite the more challenging operating environment and the negative impact on net interest margin arising from the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) reductions between November 2008 and February 2009 totalling 1.50%,” he said.

Today's Market Preview (20-07-2009)

Chartist S N Lock sees the bourse staging a U-shaped recovery
























Chartist S N Lock, who gave a presentation titled "Right timing: What do the charts say about the market's direction", at the Edge-Personal Money Investment Forum on the Stock Market 2009, is forecasting the FBM KLCI to rebound to 1,163 to 1,248 point this year. He sees the bourse staging a U-shaped recovery.

During the forum, Chartist had highlight that the index will try to retest a double bottom after rebounding to targeted 1,162 point, although the secound bottom is more likely to surface next year rather than this year. At Friday KLCI close at 1108.08 and just 54 point before the bull run turn around base on Chartist forecasting so if this true we still have 5 months to invest safely in KLCI.

Technical Analyst, SN Lock shares his take on what the charts show of the markets direction and where it may possibly head in the near future.


However base on the action plan taken by government a round the world and included Malaysia, the economic is making a U-shaped recovery in this year 2009 and likely to maintenance the bound up in year 2010 before a bull run start in year 2011 of a fully recovery. Thing may chance after a crisis as we had see economic Malaysia before and after 1997/1998 crisis, so US and China will be difference after this crisis. To continues to make profit in share after this crisis technical analysis also will need to change.

Chartist S N Lock at the forum also adds that the numerical cycles of the index over the last 32 years have shown that the index tends to close higher in the years ending with the numbers 1, 3, 6 and 9.

Related Articles:-

2009-07-17

Today's Market Preview (17-07-2009)

Electricity Tariffs Will Be Raised As The Government Looks To Cut Subsidies On Fuel Prices

Electricity tariffs is about to raise again without solid reason!

News from "Malaysia Inside"
Electricity tariffs will be raised as the government looks to cut subsidies on fuel prices, a newspaper reported today, quoting a minister.“Fuel price movements are the main factors for the electricity tariff revision,” Energy Minister Peter Chin was quoted as saying in the Business Times newspaper. Global oil prices recently dropped to below US$60 (RM212) per barrel, after reaching a dizzying height of US$147 (RM520) last year.

He did not say when the increase in tariffs would take place. Much of the electricity generated in Malaysia uses natural gas subsidized by the government. National power company Tenaga Nasional had submitted a proposal for a tariff review to the government at the end of April.

The review in electricity tariffs was due this month but was postponed.

This is the quarterly results for TNB:-












base on 2nd Quarter the net profit is 674.6 million and now still want to raise electricity. Malaysia really "Apa Pun Boleh" just after the election on Kelantan electricity and transport raise price.

2009-07-16

KNM A Oil And Gas Industries May Next Stop On RM1.10
























This few day share market bound up to new high for year 2009, KNM a oil and gas industries company also bound up back to above RM 0.80 major support line. The price may hits RM1.10 soon likely by this year end so if this few day price keep on around RM0.80 I think may buy when this share drop back a bit.

Malaysia Gold Price Holding At RM 107 per gram

















Malaysia gold price hold above RM 107 per gram again.

Spot gold hit a high of US$941.20 an ounce and was bid at US$938.45 an ounce at 1505 GMT, against US$924.60 late in New York on Tuesday. Silver was at US$13.21 an ounce against US$12.88.

Gold prices bounced to their highest level since July 2 after monthly CPI data showed consumer prices rose a slightly faster-than-expected 0.7% in June.

Combined with an improvement in northeastern manufacturing activity, the CPI data boosted investor sentiment and sent the dollar into retreat against a basket of six major currencies, raising gold's appeal for holders of foreign currencies.

US gold futures for August delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange also rose US$15.90 to US$938.70 an ounce.

Gold hit a record high above US$1,030 an ounce in March 2008.

Today's Market Preview (16-07-2009)

FBM-KLCI Is Not The Same With KLCI Month Ago

























Yesterday KLCI hits year 2009 new high above 1,100 point before close at 1,097. However one thing we need to keep in mind that now KLCI index is not the same KLCI index last month ago because the new FBM-KLCI is base on 30 solid company and controllable by government.

Majority share in FBM-KLCI is banking and plantation that government can control by using Bank Negara and CPO price. The real economic in Malaysia did not fully review in FBM-KLCI so using FBM-KLCI to analysis need to add in sector by sector index to get a real picture.

All 30 share in FBM-KLCI had some small but no vary small share hold by EPF, Tabung Haji and government investment company like Valuecap and Kazanah so government had a better control on the index. Did you know why TopGlov not on the list? Everyone know TopGlov is making money business but not like to been control due to they business did not need government to back up.

However, Asia economic is getting better and the business target on local and China market will be profitable so invest carefully on share market by analysis the natural of the business of the share you buy.

2009-07-15

Today's Market Preview (15-07-2009)

Malaysia Set For U-Shaped Recovery?

The global economy is not quite out of the woods, but the good news is the worst is over. Backdrop of improving global economic data, Asia is expected to recover faster than the industrialized world.
They are some research house project a V-shaped recovery for Asia and I think V-shaped recovery likely to happen on China and India but for Malaysia, U-shaped is likely to happen after China and India recovery from crisis.

China and Singapore are among the top trading partners of Malaysia, the expansion in their PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) will spur demand for Malaysia's manufactured goods so with a V-shaped recovery from their, Malaysia will recover U-shaped. Be that as it may, domestic demand will still be the driver of Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the months ahead. Malaysia economy is expected to grow +1.3% in 4Q2009, but not enough to prevent the economy from contracting -3% this year before growing at +3.5% in 2010 said by CIMB

Going forward, the performance of the Malaysia economy hinges on political stability and a continued pace of economic reform to make the country competitive and attractive location for foreign investors. History has shown that economies that slip into a deep recession will rebound just as sharply as was the case in 1998 when the Malaysia economy contracted 8% and bounced back 5.4% in 1999, with the last quarter growing 10.6% y-o-y.

U-shaped recovery can still happen in Malaysia for several factors
  1. Asia now has China and India ( and to a certain extent Indonesia) to offset slackening export demand from Europe and US.
  2. Asian governments have all put in place aggressive stimulus packages which are beginning to take effect.
  3. Asian policymakers have begun to focus on boosting domestic demand since 1998 and last but not least, the developed world is already showing signs of recovery, thanks to aggressive fiscal stimulus actions.

2009-07-14

Today's Market Preview (14-07-2009)

PBBANK On The Way To Recovery

























This few days we see Bank share like AMMB and PBBANK is getting stable with moving up slowly compare CIMB and Maybank. In bank sector AMMB and PBBANK remain the top choice of big fund in Malaysia, base on the chart PBBANK is about to move new high on this year.

Due to the mother share moving up AMMB-CD and PBBANK-CJ also moving up high.

Related Articles:-

Today's Market Preview (13-07-2009)

2009-07-12

PBBank - CJ Another Warrant To Look Out

























PBBank-CJ, it is exercisable at a four-for-one ratio, at an exercise price of RM7.50 perPublic Bank share. It expires on Sept 24, 2010.

Premium = (Call Warrant Price x Exercise Ratio) + Exercise Price - Underlying Security Price /Underlying Security Price

= [(0.460*4)+7.50 - 9.30]/9.30

= 0.43 %

2009-07-11

Xingquan International Sports Holdings Ltd directly listed on the Bursa Malaysia

















Chinese sportswear firm Xingquan International Sports Holdings Ltd today made history by being the first foreign company to be directly listed on the Bursa Malaysia. This foreign share did not own anything in Malaysia during they listing so any bad thing happen they can just go back to China so for me this type of share is highly speculative.

From 'The Edge' report the Company chairman and chief executive officer Wu Qinquan, speaking at a press conference here today, thanked Bursa Malaysia and the Malaysian Investment Committee, saying they have been supportive and asked if the company was considering setting up stores here, Wu said the suggestion would be considered but as of now, his company was focusing more on domestic growth.

This company is any had share in Bursa Malaysia no property at all.

2009-07-10

Today's Market Preview (10-07-2009)

2009-07-09

TopGlov On The Move To Higher Share Price
















Today TOPGLOV move higer to RM 7.30 with high volume. TopGlov is one of my share invested in my long term profile.

Related Articles:-

Today's Market Preview (09-07-2009)

Bursa Malaysia KLSE Daily Report


KLCI Volume Drop Each Day

























KLCI volume is drop each daya since KLCI hits 1090 level, situation likely to continue in this week due to most of the investor will see what is the outcome from G8.

2009-07-08

Broadband excitement

Broadband excitement
  1. Excitement over wireless broadband, sparked by the launch of Digi’s maiden 3G services and Maxis’ iPhone plans.
  2. Competition in the voice segment is more subdued.
  3. TM is our top pick for committed 7% net dividend yield.
Digi launched 3G services. Its three plans are priced at RM58-188 a month without modems (which can be purchased separately). There is no commitment for the broadband services. Digi will focus on improving service quality, not growing subscriber base. This is the right strategy to build consumer confidence in Digi, and thus draw more customers.

Maxis’ iPhone 3G plan. We estimate that its low commitment voice plan of RM100/month is more attractive because the free minutes that come with it are for domestic calls only. IDD and international roaming as well as (basic) SMS are additional. However, the low-commitment plan creates a high
barrier because users have to pay RM1.5k-RM2.3k to purchase the handset.

Celcom is trying not to lose out by focusing on the Blackberry Storm, which we think is more of a business tool compared to the iPhone. It is the right move by Celcom to focus on the business/corporate segment instead of competing head-on with Digi and Maxis.

New prepaid plans are unattractive. Maxis’ new plans appear cheaper but it charges on larger blocks of 60-second vs. 30-seconds previously. Meanwhile, Celcom’s fine print states that other than the 15 regularly called numbers (at 12sen/minute), charges are very expensive (at 180-510 sen/minute),

Dividend (defensive) play. TM is our preferred pick in the Malaysian telco sector for its committed 20sen/share DPS or 7% net yield. Catalyst for rerating TM includes significant contracts for its HSBB. We also like Digi for its 5% dividend yield and strong
management, but we are concerned about the risk of Axiata’s net gearing rising again in view of its appetite for M&A.

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Investment Idea

My investment with RM5,000 initial capital have been growing since 2005.I found the stock market appears confusing and complicated, but it is most definitely based on logic "supply and demand". However, the laws of supply and demand as observed in the markets do not behave as one would expect. To be an effective trader, there is a great need to understand how supply and demand can be interpreted under different market conditions and how to take advantage of this Off Market Transactions in KLSE.

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