Bursa Malaysia (KLSE) Daily Info Edge Zone

Base On History KLCI Index Big Dip Happen After Hits New High

2012-01-30T08:09:00.003+08:00

Base on KLCI history, the index will big dip after broken to new high. In year 2001, 2008 and 2011, share market big dip happen after the index hit new high.

Usually the share market will go high price for Fund Manager to distribute the share before they dip the market by using bad news to buy back share in low price.

PBBANK Is Moving Up!

2012-01-27T12:12:00.002+08:00

PBBANK is moving up due to the 4Q financial result is near. A new high likely to be make before the result roll out so take profit before a day the result out for CW investor.

No QE3 Yet!

2012-01-26T08:06:00.001+08:00

The Federal Reserve did not launch a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today, but did extend the timeframe for near-zero interest rates from mid-2013 to late-2014.

In addition, the tone of the Fed statement was a bit more dovish than that from last month’s meeting. Specifically, the latest statement said that “the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy” – which was language not included in the prior statement.

Another key difference was that the one dissenting vote came from a hawkish rather than dovish member. Last month, Charles Evans dissented because he supported “additional policy accommodation.” This time, Jeffrey Lacker “preferred to omit the description of the time period over which economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate.”

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold his third-ever post-FOMC press conference at 2:15pm ET today.

Following the release of the Fed statement, gold futures turned sharply higher. The yellow metal had already pared its losses by climbing back from $1,649.20 to $1,658 prior to the announcement, and subsequently rallied above $1,670 per ounce.

Gold shares bounced back as well, with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) recovering from earlier losses to trade higher by $0.43, or 0.8%, at $52.25 per share.

The rebound in gold coincided with a move lower in the U.S. dollar, which relinquished its gains against a basket of foreign currencies.

FBM KLCI Likely To Mark Up This Week!

2012-01-25T09:54:00.002+08:00

Today FBM KLCI reopen after CNY holidays and likely will be mark up if low seller from retail investor. However this mark up likely just to show a false good economic in Malaysia.

With latest data show FDI investment in Malaysia is low, Malaysia economic is really not in good shape, anytime in this year, the share may dip.

Indonesia's FDI Hit A Record High RM59.8B

2012-01-20T16:38:00.004+08:00

Indonesia’s foreign direct investment (FDI) hit a record US$19.3 billion (RM59.8 billion) last year, the highest in the region, and is expected to rise another 25 per cent this year despite the gloomy global economy.

In contrast, Malaysia only pulled in about US$10 billion (RM31 billion) last year, same as Vietnam.

So is it all the data of Malaysia investment in news paper is correct? If "No" so where come the extra money government is giving out, is it from ours own EPF?

FBM KLCI Mark Up Will Happen Very Soon

2012-01-20T12:19:00.003+08:00

FBM KLCI mark up will happen very soon. I think the best time will be next week after the 2 days holidays.

This is the last call to sale share in hand before the big dip.

FBM KLCI Likely Windows Dressing Mark Up

2012-01-19T10:08:00.002+08:00

Base on the chart, show that most of the fund manager already sold part of their share to take profit so a mark up during CNY next week will be likely.

However, after the mark up Fund Manager need to dip the share to enter again so DON'T buy share when it was up, wait for the big dip.

No 2012 Chinese New Year Share Rally

2012-01-17T09:59:00.003+08:00

This week is the last trading week before Chinese New Year and look like share rally is unlikely for this year.

Due to most of the fund manager selling out they share in hand, any price move up will be sale down.

FBM KLCI likely hard to hold on 1,500 level if fund manager continues selling share in hand.

FBM KLCI may facing risk to dip below 1,500 level

2012-01-14T12:15:00.002+08:00

If retail investor urgent need money for CNY really sale share in low price this week, and FBM KLCI caped at 1520 to 1510 gap.

However if next week (last week before CNY) FBM KLCI unable to broken 1,530 level, FBM KLCI may facing risk to dip below 1,500 level.

QE3, $2,200 Gold Ahead This Year, Says Morgan Stanley

2012-01-13T08:38:00.002+08:00

The Federal Reserve will launch a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and the price of gold will reach a new all-time record high above $2,200 per ounce later this year, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

In a recent report to clients, the Wall Street investment bank named gold among its top picks for 2012 and forecasted an average price of $2,200 per ounce.

Morgan Stanley’s view is based on part on Ben Bernanke launching a third round of asset purchases. Vince Reinhart – the firm’s chief U.S. economist and a former Federal Reserve official for 17 years – wrote the following:

The unwind of the negative shocks from Japan’s earthquake and the run-up in energy prices earlier in the year are responsible for the recent run of strong data in the US economy..Once these tailwinds have played out and a shallow fiscal pothole emerges, growth should slow to around 2% in early 2012. As a result, the Fed will probably mark down its growth and inflation forecasts. The deceleration will likely be enough to convince the FOMC that the downside risks to its dual objectives of maximum employment and stable prices need to be addressed. However, given the ambiguity in the Federal Reserve Act about how to weigh these objectives against each other, disagreement within the FOMC itself about the relative weights and Bernanke’s efforts to create a more democratic process for decision-making, progress on another QE package is likely to be slow and full of compromise. Eventually though, we believe that a package of Treasury and MBS purchases of US$500-750 billion will arrive some time between March and June.

PBBANK 4Q2011 Result Out This Month

2012-01-11T10:59:00.003+08:00

PBBANK 4Q2011 result will out this month, share had supported at RM13.20 level for few trading days.

This is a accumulate share before mark up when the result is out, however the mark up may not long due to many seller in the market.

PBBANK is the only bank with solid earning compare MAYBANK and CIMB. Example like MAYBANK earn billion but did not show on share price.

Local Fund Manager Are Selling Share!

2012-01-10T16:01:00.004+08:00

Local Fund Manager are selling share when share market move up.

Too Many Investor Want To Sale Share

2012-01-09T13:44:00.004+08:00

Last week we saw when share market move up, there are alot of seller and usually share up at the morning dip at afternoon, final mark up during closing.

This show that fund manager is distribute they share in hand. What I analysis most of fund manager report view in 2012, they said the year still good to invest. However, base on last week trading patten, they are exiting the market slowly.

Due to this slow sale down, I think this year Chinese New Year rally is unlikely, only a day or two final mark up may happen next week before CNY.

PCHEM Is Marking Up Higher

2012-01-06T08:21:00.002+08:00

Yesterday FBM KLCI index is supported by PCHEM, base on the chart the price may move higher by today. However is today high price rejected, PCHEM may move lower but if success, this share in short term may back to RM6.80 level

Too Many Seller In The Market

2012-01-05T08:16:00.002+08:00

Base on 2 trading days enter into the new year, too many seller in the market to cut off they share holding. Likely FBM KLCI will dip below 1,500 before move up again.

Chinese New Year Rally Is The Last Call To Sale Share

2012-01-04T08:27:00.002+08:00

Chinese new year rally is the last call to sale share. 1H2012 may see what Europe and US do to save their economic. Any empty promise will dip the share.

KLCI Index End Year 2011 With A Big Jump Of 24 Point

2011-12-31T09:01:00.002+08:00

Due to last min jump on MayBank share had help the KLCI index end year 2011 with a big jump of 24 point.

Malaysia share index really a good show.

Happy New Year To All.

2011 Last Trading Day FBM KLCI Likely Close Same At A Year Ago

2011-12-30T13:29:00.003+08:00

Today last trading day for 2011 may likely to see FBM KLCI close back as last year 30 Dec 2010 at 1,518 level. However, FBM KLCI successfully close above 1,500 level is not due to most of the 30 share moving up.

The index is fully supported by 3 Petronas share but 3 major bank MayBank, CIMB and PBBANK did not show any big jump. PBBANK manage to recover back to above 13.00 level (Most of the fund manager rate it hold) MayBank and CIMB still did not recover back. This show that Malaysia economic did not get better compare last year.

For me, next year my profile will move more from my bank share into Petronas share due to the share is control by government and the price can moving up without high vol. I think goverment will mark the price higher to support FBM KLCI when the economic is bad and GE 13 is near.

At last here I wish all my blog reader happy new year and get more profit in share at 2012.

Luckly PETGES Is In FBM KLCI Index

2011-12-29T08:18:00.002+08:00

PETGES also is one of my favorites share because this share can move up without high vol or any news. This share like magic, it can be mark to any price and usually when FBM KLCI index need to move up, this share will help to push.

I change most of my share profile from Bank base to this share. I found this share is more better that bank share because this Petronas is always profit as long as BM is in control and all 3 Petronas share list in bursa is in FBM KLCI index so vary clear that this will be use by government to control the index better.

PBBANK Still The Best In Banking Compare MayBank and CIMB

2011-12-28T08:11:00.002+08:00

PBBANK had recover back to RM13 after a big dip near RM11 level. PBBANK still the best in banking compare MayBank and CIMB even most of the fund manager rate PBBANK at on hold and MayBank & CIMB at Buy.

Fund manager always move opposite with they buy call. However buying into PBBANK now may be late due to the price is high.

2011 Year End Rally?

2011-12-27T08:08:00.004+08:00

Only left 4 trading days before ending year 2011. At 2010, KLCI end with 1,518 point, to close flat this year KLCI need only 22 point. Likely KLCI will hits above 1,500 level.

I personally think that any new year rally is the good point to sale your share due to Europe crisis may come anytime, long term investment is not a good idea for year 2012.

New Year 2012 KLCI Relly

2011-12-24T10:30:00.002+08:00

The Federal Reserve may alter the language of its monetary policy statement at next month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in a move that could keep interest rates at record low levels for longer than previously anticipated.

This morning the Wall Street Journal reported that the Ben Bernanke-led U.S. central bank “could signal it is likely to keep short-term interest rates near zero into 2014 or beyond, to bolster the fragile economic recovery.” The rationale for the change stems from news that “Fed officials have grown increasingly uncomfortable with their August statement that they are likely to hold short-term rates exceptionally low at least through mid-2013. Some believe low inflation and high unemployment could warrant low rates for longer.”

While the Fed funds futures market – which the report points out – is currently forecasting a 50% chance that the Fed will not begin raising rates until January 2014, the aforementioned change to the FOMC statement would provide even more of a tailwind for the price of gold and other U.S.-dollar denominated asset classes.

PBBANK Start To Move Up

2011-12-22T17:18:00.003+08:00

PBBANK is a share that always move up when come to year end. Same pattern had happen since back 12 years and the rally always till CNY due to finacial year end result will be roll out on Jan 2012.

KLCI Show Good Sign Of Support

2011-12-21T08:05:00.002+08:00

This few trading day saw KLCI index show good sign of support at 1,460 level, an up down trading pattern show between 1,480 and 1,460.

Trading vol also show this level is a good support line, so there are some hope the index may move up to end year 2011.

Final Week For KLCI Year 2011 Windows Dressing

2011-12-19T07:51:00.002+08:00

Now only left 2 week before end year 2011 so this last 2 week is final week for KLCI year 2011 windows dressing.

I think KLCI likely to move positively to 1,500 level. US and Europe share market is the last week to rally, however most of the investor is not giving hope on this.

European debt situation is significantly worse than 2008

2011-12-17T08:49:00.002+08:00

Michael Platt, head of a $30 billion hedge fund, BlueCrest Capital Management LLP, provided his thoughts on the sovereign debt crisis in an interview yesterday with Bloomberg. Platt contended that Italy’s financial situation is likely to worsen significantly over the next year and that “much more radical measures” are needed to prevent such a dire outcome from occurring. “If Italy and Spain are forced to roll their debt over, if they have to pay rates between 5 and 7% for this, then the situation in Europe is unsustainable. We’re not going to have any euro bonds, we’re not going to have a full political and fiscal union where the transfers can take place. It seems what we’re going to have is an attempt to control the European situation through continued austerity, which is pro-cyclical. As the economy slows down, we end up with more austerity which creates more slowdown.”

When asked to compare the 2008 financial crisis to the current situation in Europe, Platt responded that “What’s going on now is significantly worse than 2008…The European debt situation is fundamentally completely unstable. The process of refinancing your debt with a real rate of 5 when you have negative GDP growth, and we are heading into a recession in Europe, arithmetically can turn all of the countries in Europe, given enough time, into Greece.”

2011 Christmas And New Year Share Rally Unlikely

2011-12-15T13:58:00.002+08:00

Poor outcome from European summit had cause share and gold price dip. Situation turn more badly when Feb meeting since no action on current situation.

International gold price had dip below USD1,600 per oz due to investor speculation where by physical gold price still keep in high rate (RM187/g for 916 gold) in compare with last feel month when gold just hits USD 1,550 level, 916 gold only cost RM172/g. Physical Gold still is the safe haven but not paper gold.

Due to most of the fund manager is not doing well in the market so now they year end bonus turn to paper gold, so if you invested in paper gold last month, now you already lose profit to paid fund manager bonus. Usually physical gold price is move along with paper gold but now the game play change because the policy maker need to make profit for they luxury holidays. That why China want they citizen to buy physical gold not paper gold.

With current situation, Christmas and New Year share rally is unlikely however big dip also unlikely because all the problem had forwarded to next year 2012. Next year share market will be a highly speculation game play paper gold market will like share market so best investment still is physical gold.

Federal Reserve kept the Fed funds rate unchanged and did not announce a third round of quantitative easing (QE3)

2011-12-14T07:45:00.002+08:00

The Federal Reserve kept the Fed funds rate unchanged and did not announce a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) at its latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday.

Today’s statement from the Bernanke-led central bank was very similar to the November FOMC statement. One meaningful difference was in the first paragraph that discusses recent developments in the economy: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated.”

Another difference was in the second paragraph, where the Fed previously stated that “There are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.” This time, it said that “Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.”

Once again, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans was the lone dissenting vote, as he “supported additional policy accommodation at this time.”

The initial reaction in financial markets to the Fed announcement included:

Gold futures extended their losses, falling $12.90 to $1,655.30 per ounce

U.S. Dollar Index extended its gains, by 0.7% to 80.10

The euro slid 1.0% to 1.3063 against the dollar

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pared its gains but remained higher by 41.70 at 12,063.09

Bonds rallied, with the yield on the 10-year note falling 2 percentage points to 1.99%

Europe would bring on a crisis that would make the 2008 credit crisis seem like a walk in the park

2011-12-13T08:04:00.003+08:00

“So, nothing changed, in that the can was kicked yet one more time. Still, we may look back in ten years and see that this was the beginning of a very different Europe. Right now, the political leaders seem to be signaling, with the exception of Britain, that they are ready to sign on. I think they actually mean it. And those of us in the rest of the world had better hope they figure it out. A fractured Europe would bring on a crisis that would make the 2008 credit crisis seem like a walk in the park. Especially as the world seems to be getting ready for a synchronized recession.”

The above commentary is from John Mauldin’s weekly Thoughts from the Frontline letter, in which the long-time market pundit provided his analysis of the latest sovereign debt developments in Europe.

Mauldin began by summarizing his argument: “We have come to the end of yet another European Summit that was supposed to be the one to fix the problem. If you are confused as to what happened then you are not alone. Was it something we will look back on in ten years and say, ‘This was where it all started,’ or will it be viewed as just another meeting in what will prove to be a string of even more meetings? I will argue that both views are the correct answer, depending on your frame of reference.”

KLCI Likely To Broken 1,500 This Week

2011-12-12T08:03:00.002+08:00

After a week of moving down after hit 1,500 level, KLCI likely to broken 1,500 this week due to most of the report from US and Europe already roll out. For Asia always no news is good news so when US and Europe go into long holidays, thing may be view positively.

Summit on Friday end without any solid result so the Euro crisis may continues to year 2012.

Yesterday Market Pull Down Is A Test

2011-12-08T08:15:00.002+08:00

Yesterday Malaysia share market pull down till last minus push up by Axiata share is a market test. Some weak share holder already been "wash out" and share market likely to go sideways abit lower till end of this week.

As investors await Friday’s European Union summit in which policymakers are expected to craft the next set of measures to deal with the sovereign debt crisis, most of the investor is expressed a particularly cautious view on the summits’ likely outcomes.

Share Market Likely Move Sideways Till Friday

2011-12-06T08:09:00.005+08:00

Share market likely to move sideways
till Friday as Europe meet again for solid action to combat Euro crisis.

Yesterday FBM KLCI show a Doji sign with vol move up. This show that the support is here and also most of the investor think that the GE13 is very very near.

Will Stocks Christmas Rally For 2011?

2011-12-05T08:20:00.002+08:00

Thus far in 2011 the overall stock market movement has been much different from what we had in 2010. This year we have seen nothing but sideways to lower prices with wild price swings on a day to day basis. There just has not been any really solid trends to take advantage of this year. Instead we had to actively trade the oversold dips and sell into the overbought rallies to just pull money out of the market on a monthly basis. Last year we saw 3 major rallies that lasted several months making it easy for anyone who bought into the trend to make money if managed properly

Base on the history of S&P share market, now the market is in oversold and in compare, the market will rebound and move sideways till the end of the year, howeverit may depending how things unfold in Europe in coming week.

Back home, Malaysia share market may follow most of Asia share market but the positive point is GE13 will likely at Jan during CNY, base on this any good news from US and Europe will help to push KLCI index fly sky high above 1,530 level.

MayBank Share Price Broken RM8.20 Level - Bullish Sign

2011-12-03T10:40:00.002+08:00

Yesterday closing for MayBank share did not drop below RM8.20 show that the share price likely to move up higher and in short term will broken RM8.40 by year end.

A small increase in MayBank will give a big push to FBM KLCI index.

KLCI Index Still Keeping In Positive Zone - Bullish Sign

2011-12-02T13:50:00.002+08:00

Up to mid day, KLCI index still able to hold on in positive zone. This is a good sign showing that the selling pressure is not high.

More Money Will Print Out By End Of 2011

2011-10-27T07:51:00.004+08:00

The only solution currant US and Euro can do is just print more money. This is the easy ways to push the problem to next year
so in short term share price will up and gold price will sky high as well as food price.

If your money now is in gold or share market, likely you will make profit by year end but if your money in bank, your money value will drop.

GAMUDA Likely To Go Higher Next Month

2011-10-25T08:10:00.002+08:00

Base on the chart, GAMUDA likely to go higher next month after wash out most of the weak holder by dip the share from RM3.70 to RM2.70.

Price may likely to drop back near RM3.00 before bound up more. The smart money is now ready to mark up the share when come to year end.

Another round of quantitative easing would almost certainly be positive for gold prices

2011-10-23T15:18:00.002+08:00

Several members of the Federal Reserve have begun in recent days to make calls for the central bank to provide additional accommodative monetary policies. Fed President Eric Rosengren and Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo each made comments this week that the Fed should consider resuming its purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which would effectively mark the launch of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3). The Fed last purchased mortgage-backed securities as part of QE1.

The intention of such measures would be to further stimulate the housing market, which has shown few signs of improvement despite the rebound in numerous other sectors of the U.S. economy since 2009.

Judging by recent history, another round of quantitative easing would almost certainly be positive for gold prices and share market but food price will also fly sky high.

Smart Money Test The Market

2011-10-22T08:44:00.002+08:00

Yesterday Smart money use the current situation to test the market by dip the index below 1,400 to cause panic, however due to the vol sold is small the test is failed. Likely next week share will move sideways and if Europe start print money, US QE3 news will resurface again and will help to push share higher.

BN poised for bigger win in GE13, says OSK Research - Becareful!

2011-10-21T14:57:00.002+08:00

OSK research report flow out today really show that when GE13 come share will go high and after that big dip. Research houses, more often than not, have tendency to paint a good picture of the economic climate in the country for obvious reasons that is left to your imagination. Without people especially investors being positively active in the market the research houses and their 'cronies' will be doing less business and less profit. There were a number of times in the recent past when their forecast was always bright when other sources inside and outside the country are seeing a bleak future ahead because of the economic downturn., One should not read too much into these kind of reports which are meant to serve its own kind and clients.

Full report at MalaysiaInsider

Going Against Panic

2011-10-20T13:10:00.004+08:00

The key FBM KLCI will likely come under selling pressures today. Technically speaking, the benchmark index could test and break below its immediate support level of 1,445 ahead.

On the external front, sentiment is expected to turn cautious following news that it would not be easy for the European nations to come to an agreement on how to resolve the regional sovereign debt problems. Reacting to this concern, major U.S. equity indices dropped between 0.6% and 2.0% at the closing bell last night.

I think to made profit for now we need to going against panic selling.

Asia Market Correction After A Week Of Rally

2011-10-19T07:52:00.002+08:00

Yesterday all Asia share market in red after a week of strong rally push up. FBM KLCI likely to dip back to 1420 support line before any bound up.

In this situation, call warrant will be profitable in short term.

Asia Market In Red Sea

2011-10-18T13:27:00.002+08:00

Yesterday FBM KLCI up 20+ point and today at mid day already drop back. Asia share already moving up for a week plus and now come the correction. Any action taken by US and Euro is highly effecting the market.

FBM KLCI could pull back soon after staging a relief rally in the last three weeks

2011-10-17T09:56:00.002+08:00

Chances are that the FBM KLCI could pull back soon after staging a relief rally in the last three weeks. On the chart, the benchmark index may have run out of steam already, possibly backing off from the major resistance area of 1,445 – 1,475.

The key market barometer jumped 42.4-point or 3.0% last week to finish at 1,442.43 on Friday. Posting gains too during the week were the FBM 70 Index and the FBM ACE Index, up 4.2% and 6.3%, respectively. Rising in tandem were the daily average trading volume and trading value, up from 816.6m units worth RM1.2b to 1.1b shares valued at RM1.3b last week.

We reckon investors may want to play safe in the coming week ahead of two major meetings abroad. This follows the strong market rebounds across the region last week, paced by China shares listed in Hong Kong (+7.8%), Indonesia (+7.0%) and Thailand (+5.1%). U.S. equity indices were also up by between 4.9% and 7.6% through the week on the back of better sentiment.
Apparently, global equities are getting a lift on the hopes that policymakers in Europe would put together an action plan to sort out the sovereign debt mess soon and mend their deteriorating economic conditions. Whether the outcomes will eventually match these expectations or otherwise could be known in the next fortnight. The two key dates to watch out for are:
(a) 23 Oct, as the European countries meet to discuss on measures to resolve the region’s sovereign debt turmoil; and
(b) 3-4 Nov, when the Group of 20 nations gather to consider additional steps to stabilize the global financial system.

Meanwhile, our Malaysian bourse will be relying on local corporate developments for individual share price actions. One possible source is the upcoming Jul – Sep quarterly financial reporting season. Starting the ball rolling this week are Public Bank (possibly early part of the week), Bursa Malaysia (on Wednesday) and BAT Malaysia (Thursday).

From a technical perspective, the three-week-old relief rally by the FBM KLCI could have run its course already. The benchmark index has now clawed back 131.9-point (or 46%) from a cumulative loss of 286.6- point (as measured from a peak of 1,597.08 in first half of Jul to a trough of 1,310.53 in late Sep), recovering to where it was in mid-Sep.

We reckon the bellwether will likely back track in the near term as it faces strong resistance barriers at 1,445 and 1,475. On the downside, the index may slide lower towards the support levels of 1,415 (first) and 1,395 (second) going forward. In addition, the FBM KLCI’s weekly chart pattern (see overleaf) shows that its upward movements will probably be capped by:
(a) a short-term negative sloping trend line (in red) that began in Jul this year;
(b) the 75-week moving average line (in green, which is presently hovering at 1,470); and
(c) a long-term positive sloping trend line (in blue) stretching back to Jan 2001.

FBM KLCI to pull back after staging a cumulative rise of 83.5-point

2011-10-14T13:30:00.002+08:00

HwangDBS expect the key FBM KLCI to pull back after staging a cumulative rise of 83.5-point or 6.1% in seven days. From a technical perspective, the benchmark index will probably back off from its immediate resistance level of 1,445 ahead.

Meanwhile, major U.S. equity indices rebounded from their intra-day lows to finish mixed (of between -0.4% and +0.6%) last night. Essentially, sentiment was clouded by renewed concerns on the progress of the European debt crisis.

FBMKLCI would probably stay above its immediate resistance turned support level of 1,415 for now

2011-10-13T11:29:00.001+08:00

Major U.S. indices closed positively yesterday, up between 0.8% and 1.0% as the market reflected optimism after the European leaders provided a road map to tame the debt crisis and the Federal Reserve discussed further asset purchases.

I think the Malaysian bourse is likely to extend its gain today on the back of the positive vibes from the external markets. Our benchmark FBMKLCI would probably stay above its immediate resistance turned support level of 1,415 for now.

Panic Selling, Buy Panicky

2011-10-12T08:13:00.002+08:00

FBM KLCI regain 1,400 level yesterday after dip to 1,330 level last few week ago. For who buy panicky during the panic selling time now already earn a huge profit especially who buy PCHEM-CB when the price is 0.03.

Ever panic selling lost will be the buy panicky gain.

FBM KLCI could have found a temporary footing after bouncing up from a short term bottom

2011-10-10T20:07:00.002+08:00

While the technical rebound in the FBM KLCI may carry on a little longer – which is not exactly a surprise after dropping in nine of the last 13 weeks – this has not changed our view that downside risks are still looming in the horizon. We reckon the resistance hurdles of 1,415 and 1,445 could stop the bellwether’s progress going forward.

Following an initial fall to a low of 1,353.45, the FBM KLCI recovered subsequently to settle at 1,400.05 last Friday, a weekly increase of 12.9-point or 0.9%. Finishing up too for the week were the FBM 70 Index (+0.4%) and the FBM ACE Index (+1.4%). Trading activity, nevertheless, eased from a daily average volume of 965.0m units worth RM1.6b to 816.6m shares valued at RM1.2b. Investors will kick off this week by checking for possible stock market implications arising from the 2012 Budget, which was unveiled late Friday afternoon. Our sense is that the immediate reaction will likely be broadly neutral. Nevertheless, there could be a mixed bag of impact on selective sectors. Construction companies may stand to benefit from the proposed implementation of double-tracking rail project, building of highways and redevelopment of Sungei Besi Kuala Lumpur air base while consumer stocks could get a lift from the extra money in the pockets of the low and mid-income groups. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) will also enjoy an extension in the concessionary tax rate incentive of 10% on dividends by another five years.

On the other hand, property sector will be hit by a multi-tier real property gains tax (RPGT) structure, comprising 10% (for disposals within two years), 5% (if disposed of after the second year until the fifth year) and nil (for disposals after five years). Meanwhile, the plan to list Felda Global Ventures Holding as a mega plantation conglomerate (by mid-2012) and more Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) will broaden the investment choices on Bursa Malaysia. In addition to the budget assessment, of interest too in the week ahead are news relating to: (a) plantation statistics (on production, exports, inventory) for Sep to be out today, which may shift the outlook for crude palm oil (CPO) price (after falling to a 12-month low at RM2,772 per tonne); (b) the index of industrial production (IPI) for Aug scheduled on Tuesday; and (c) quarterly financial results for Top Glove also due on Tuesday.

This comes as Malaysia equities remain vulnerable to future foreign sell-offs. Statistics provided by the stock exchange last week revealed net foreign selling amount of just USD0.1b in Sep (when the FBM KLCI lost 4.2%), versus an outflow of USD1.3b in Aug (following a 6.6% fall in the index). In contrast, around the region, foreigners were net sellers last month in Thailand (-USD542m) and Philippines (-USD138m) but bought more shares than they sold in Indonesia (+USD172m).

Technically speaking, the FBM KLCI could have found a temporary footing after bouncing up from a short term bottom of 1,310.53 in late Sep this year. And the relief rally may stretch on for a while more, which is not really surprising considering that the key market barometer is still down by 195-point or 12% since three months ago. But we believe the worst is not over yet. When the selling momentum returns, the bears would likely force the FBM KLCI to challenge the support lines of 1,395 and 1,345. A resumption of the bearish trend could be forthcoming should the bellwether plot a lower low by dropping below its recent trough of 1,310. On the upside, we expect the benchmark index to hit a stumbling block at the 1,415 (first) and 1,445 (next) resistance levels. Also standing in its way is a downward sloping trend line, which should cap the FBM KLCI’s

FBM KLCI Today Likely To Move Above 1,400 Level

2011-10-07T08:05:00.002+08:00

Today is budget 2012 day, and base on the major bank share movement this week today FBM KLCI likely to broken back 1,400 level. Current foreign investor money is low in Malaysia and when Asia market go up Malaysia is free to mark up the market.

This month will be the good month to take profit in call warrant investment especially PCHEM-CB and MayBank-CR because this two share move up will push FBM KLCI higher. PCHEM likely to move up more due to when it at RM5.50 to RM5.40 many share been accumulated so soon PCHEM-CB will move to RM0.06, it is 50% up from lowest.

Axiata Broken The Down Formation

2011-10-06T07:55:00.002+08:00

Yesterday FBM KLCI moving up mainly power by Axiata. Base on the chart, the up bar had broken the down formation and if most of the bank share follow, FBM KLCI may likely to go above 1,400 level. Budget 2012 may likely bring some support to FBM KLCI this Friday.

Investors could be hoping against hopes that policymakers would be able to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis.

2011-10-05T09:44:00.003+08:00

Investors could be hoping against hopes that policymakers would be able to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis. Key U.S. equity indices rose in late trading to close up between 1.4% and 3.0% last night on news that there might be plans to recapitalized European banks.

Still, we expect sentiment to remain cautious ahead. Reflecting this, the DJIA Dec month futures contract was trading at a 125- point discount to the spot rate this morning. Back home, we reckon the benchmark FBM KLCI will probably drift sideways with a marginal positive bias today.

Among the stocks that may see more interest include PLUS, after a daily paper, quoting sources, said the joint offerors (namely EPF and UEM Group) have agreed to pay an extra amount – in addition to an outstanding payment of RM4.45 per share – due to the longer time it is taking to complete the privatization deal.

Technically speaking, a reversal of market trend could be underway now

2011-10-04T13:18:00.001+08:00

From a technical perspective, the odds are that our Malaysian bourse will extend its downtrend going forward. The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI or FBM KLCI could sink deeper, probably bottoming somewhere between 1,185 and 1,240. This represents an additional downside risk of 11%-15% from the current level.

3Q11 was a washout for global equities. In Malaysia, the bellwether slumped 12.2% during the quarter, which more than wiped out its first half’s gains to push the year-to-date performance into the red (minus 8.7% since end-10). Among the regional peers, the hardest hit were: (a) China shares listed in Hong Kong (-29.7% so far this year / -29.1% in 3Q11); (b) Hong Kong (-23.6% / -21.5%); and (c) India (-19.8% / -12.7%) while the out-performers were (a) Indonesia (minus 4.2% year-to-date / -8.7% in 3Q11); (b) Philippines (-4.8% / -6.8%); and (c) Thailand (-11.3% / -12.0%). On Wall Street, major U.S. stock indices registered negative year-to-date returns of 5.7% to 10.0% (following declines of between 12.1% and 14.3% in 3Q11).

A confluence of adverse developments has effectively forced our market rally to come to a halt. Taking a hit on sentiment is a list of fear factors comprising: (a) rising risk aversion, which has sparked liquidity outflows from Asia; (b) sovereign debt crisis fallouts in Europe; (c) double-dip global recession risk; and (d) a streak of corporate profit downgrades. Caught in a self-perpetuating process, we may be stuck in a vicious circle now following the unrelenting bashing of confidence, which could knock on the already fragile economic conditions.

There is no easy way out to resolve the overseas financial troubles because of limited flexibility in both the monetary (interest rates are already at low levels) and fiscal (due to budget deficits constraint) policies. The possibilities of a credit crunch and instability in the currency markets could complicate the situation even more. To cushion the external threats, Malaysia will be relying on domestic forces such as: (a) the progressive implementation of high-impact infrastructure projects (e.g. MRT) under the government’s Economic Transformation Programme (ETP); and (b) the tabling of 2012 Budget on 7 Oct to shore up our local economic resilience.

But to be clear, Malaysia equities will still be subject to external market volatilities given the presence of a fairly large sum of foreign money in the country. Latest statistics provided by the stock exchange showed foreign ownership – as a percentage of overall market capitalization – at 22.0% as of end-Jun this year, versus 20.8% in end-Feb 09. But in terms of absolute value, this translates to an estimated amount of RM290b (just before the market peak in early Jul this year), which was more than doubled the corresponding level of RM134b (prior to the start of our local bourse run-up in mid-Mar 09), thus making us vulnerable to further foreign selling.

A potential wild card is the country’s 13th general elections, which must be held by Apr 2013. As the polling day gets nearer, depending on whether there will be any political hangovers, the blowing of pre- and post election winds could either boost or depress our stock market performance from a political risk angle.

Technically speaking, a reversal of market trend could be underway now. We believe the rally on our local bourse would have run its course already, climbing from a low of 836.51 in mid-Mar 09 to reach a top of 1,597.08 in early Jul this year for a cumulative gain of 760.6-point or 90.9% over 28 months. This means our initial technical projection made early this year for the FBM KLCI to peak between 1,730 and 1,780 no longer holds.

Report from HWangDBS

FBM KLCI More Down Side To Come

2011-10-04T07:56:00.002+08:00

After yesterday dip FBM KLCI likely to dip more lower due to selling pressure. Now still not the time to buy into share market and hold, however if buy sale in a week still ok.

FBM KLCI Likely To Dip Lower If EPF Did Not Support The Market

2011-10-03T08:13:00.004+08:00

Due to Occupy Wall Street march at New York last week and Green debt continues without any solid solution, thing is not supporting share to move up. Last week Friday we see FBM KLCI from +10 point to -10 point really show that the selling pressure still high and Foreign investor is waiting to sale share when the price is up so I think this week share price will dip more due to EPF may not support the share to move up.

FBM KLCI Soon Will Regain 1,400 Level

2011-09-30T08:01:00.002+08:00

Base on the promise done by European, share may likely to be good in short term. Base on the chart, FBM KLCI soon will regain 1,400 level and move sideways to accumulate share before move higher. All share sale panicky this week will become smart money profit.

PCHEM-CB Short Up 42%

2011-09-29T16:32:00.002+08:00

Just sold all PCHEM-CB! Call warrant can be mark up any time even underlying share did not move mach.

FBM KLCI Sharply Rebound

2011-09-28T08:18:00.003+08:00

On Tuesday 27 Sep 2011 FBM KLCI sharply rebound close up all the loss on Monday so all retail investor if sold panicky on Monday had loss there money to fund manager. Now the market situation is almost same like 2008 sharp up and down but over all is moving down.

September is going to end this week and usually 4Q is good season for share market so likely the share will move sideways with positive up and good and bad news may likely to come in and out so short term investment is profitable.

I brought a lot of warrant on PCHEM on Monday because this call warrant dip lowest 45% yesterday successfully sold some, hopefully today can sale all and wait for another opportunity of panic selling. Bank is making huge profit from call warrant that expire in this month.

Market can dip sharply because of euro meeting no solution and also can sharply up with some promise. All only talk not yet action will made the share up and down.

MayBank Rebound Taking Profit From Panic Selling

2011-09-27T09:48:00.003+08:00

Yesterday MAYBANK panic selling dip to lowest RM7.35 and closed at RM7.51 with 21.7M share so this morning only about 380K vol to bound back to RM7.80. All panic selling loss become they profit. This call a smart money move.

Big money said don't buy I think likely share will rebound today

2011-09-27T08:12:00.002+08:00

Yesterday I start to read some comment from Maybank, CIMB and ING fund manager write note to the public comment that now is not the time to buy into market. I remember last 2 round of big dip when all this guy said stop buying and share will dip more, usually the share will move sideways with positive up trading and once they accumulate enough share will jump with a small meaning less good news and recover news will start flow in.

Since the big money said don't buy I think likely share will rebound today and move sideways so likely share big dip will stop soon.

How Low Will The KLSE Market Go?

2011-09-26T16:56:00.004+08:00

In the month of Sept 2011, Gold, Silver, Oil and Share dip due to no more Money printing to support the price. Without QE3, US Dollar value is moving up everybody wants to sell everything except US dollars.

Foreign investor sell every share in Malaysia to change back to US Dollar and EPF pull down the share for Foreign investor to sold in lower price and at the same time cause panic selling. So how low will the KLSE Market go, I think 1,280 level likely due to this level is the QE2 printed money start flow into share market.

FBM KLCI Is The Biggest Loss In Asia Market Today

2011-09-26T10:43:00.003+08:00

FBM KLCI already dip 2% in Monday opening and also the biggest loss in Asia share market.

Foreign investor is selling huge Malaysia share especially bank share. I just remember last week Bank Negara said ours bank did not had many unperformed loan but look like investor did not buy this info.

FBM KLCI Foreign Investor Sale Down Likely To Continues

2011-09-26T09:06:00.004+08:00

This week likely to see FBM KLCI continues to sale down by foreign investor due to the element of Euro fear and unlikely of GE13 on this year. FBM KLCI may dip to 1,330 level main support.

MayBank Panic Selling!

2011-09-24T08:40:00.002+08:00

Yesterday MayBank price dip below RM8 and loss year to date gain since 15 Sep 2010. MayBank just close the full year earned 15B profit last month also facing selling pressure.

Foreign selling pressure likely to end soon, we already see selling pressure on all FBM KLCI blue chip and all bank share had hits. Malaysia share market is controlled by government so after most of the foreign investor go Malaysia share market will be easy to mark up again.

Next month will be a good month to buy in some blue chip call warrant. Bank had made huge profit from call warrant expire on August, September and October.

FBM KLCI Next Support Line Is 1,344 Level

2011-09-23T07:59:00.002+08:00

Without any QE3 roll out from US, US dollar value will up and investor will sale more share change back to cash. Same thing happen to gold price, now gold price already dip below 1,800 level however retail gold price still hold on in all time high, RM205 per gram for 916 gold.

With latest action take by US in stimulate the market and sale weapon to Taiwan, it show that US hope war will happen in Asia because if Asia continues to be stronger US position as leader of the world will be loss. Base on US history, World war II had safe US economy, too many people not job so died some in war will help.

Back home, foreign investor still become the net seller and base on the chart FBM KLCI next support lever will be 1,344 the opportunity to buy blue chip is near.

FBM KLCI Broken 1,400 Level On Mid Day

2011-09-22T12:01:00.003+08:00

FBM KLCI Broken 1,400 level during Thursday 22 Sep 2011 mid day. More selling pressure likely to happen.

CIMB Badly Sale Down By Foreign Investor

2011-09-22T08:17:00.002+08:00

CIMB had badly sale down by foreign investor since end Jun after hits RM9. CIMB chat had form double top formation before dip below RM7 level (22.2% loss) Base on the chart, the sale down may not end yet but next week may likely see some market test on foreign investor share holding, if the holding is less CIMB is ready to be mark up again. 5 trading day moving sideways may a sign of end of the dip.

FBM KLCI Is Due To Rebound

2011-09-21T08:27:00.002+08:00

FBM KLCI is due to rebound after 7 trading days drop. Foreign investor likely finish sale out they share in hand, when they done FBM KLCI index will be free for government to mark the level. Keep eye on Petronas share because this share can easily marked in any price.

FBM KLCI Loss All The Gain Since 30 August 2010!

2011-09-20T12:15:00.005+08:00

Today most of Asia market is holding up in positive zone however FBM KLCI still dip in red.

FBM KLCI already loss all the gain since 30 August last year. I think Foreign investor did not make any good profit.

However, likely after all the foreign investor run away from FBM KLCI, the index will mark up. Any dip below 1,400 level may buy some good share like Petronas.

FBM KLCI Likely To Deep Below 1,400 Level

2011-09-20T08:18:00.002+08:00

With FBM KLCI miss to rebound last week Friday, FBM KLCI continues to deep on yesterday about 1% same with most of Asia market. On last Friday when Malaysia is in holiday, most of Asia market ware bound up so Monday deep is only loss back the gain on Friday. However, for FBM KLCI Monday deep is continues loss on last week.

Malaysia market really not in good condition as Foreign investor continues they flow out from Malaysia share market and local fund is not buying into the market, so this really show that the market will deep more.

Now is not the time to buy share or sale, in long term local fund can not be forever not buying into the share market because they still need to paid salary, so up to some level they will start to buy, FBM KLCI will move sideways during accumulation by that time we as retail investor must follow.

Malaysia Share Market Is Full Of Wolf

2011-09-19T08:17:00.004+08:00

This week most of the investor attention will focus on FEB meeting in US looking for any QE3 or mini QE to push the Gold, Share and Food price to higher level. Back home, FBM KLCI is likely to move sideways this week due must of the investor will wait any see before jump in into Market.

Now retail investor is very low in Market and less retail investor will invest in share market due to Gold investment is better and safe. Now most of the local fund investor is very hard to earn money in share by costing panic selling because very less retail investor and most of the retail investor flow out from market will go into Gold market so not return of retail investor to buy up the share.

When not mach "Sheep" in the market left only the "Wolf" so they need to work hard to earn they profit. Soon foreign investor will need to sale share to flow back the cash back to they home place and this gap will pull the share down and is up to Local fund to support it or not. If local fund buy at low so we as a retail investor may buy too because by year end local fund need to windows dressing there profile so likely the share will in good shape and we take profit at than time.

FBM KLCI Fail To Rebound - Big Deep Likely

2011-09-16T08:31:00.002+08:00

Yesterday FBM KLCI fail to technical rebound when most of Asia share market did. 1,440 support level had been broken and now next line will be 1,400 level. A big deep likely to happen soon, if it did, it will be the good time to buy blue chip.

Technical Rebound Likely To Happen Today

2011-09-15T08:28:00.002+08:00

Yesterday FBM KLCI deep below 1,440 main support level so technical rebound likely to happen today.

U.S. equities were up last night, lifting key bellwethers on Wall Street by between 1.3% and 1.6% at the closing bell on hopes that major European nations would work to prevent a Greece collapse while China might consider buying European sovereign
bonds.

This could temporarily raise sentiment in Asia today. Back home, the benchmark FBM KLCI may stage a technical rebound after suffering a drop of 31.5-point or 2.1% so far this week, possibly pulling away from its immediate support level of 1,435. Still, in view of the volatile external backdrop, investors will likely be cautious ahead of the extended weekend break. Counters that may get added interest today include: (a) Proton following a news report saying that it is close to signing a collaboration agreement with Mitsubishi Motors for the Japanese automaker to utilize Proton’s production facility; and (b) SP Setia, which is due to announce its latest financial results this evening, after seeing its share price falling 17.7% this month.

FBM KLCI likely to swing sideways inside a narrow trading range

2011-09-14T10:51:00.002+08:00

Our Malaysian bourse is expected to show a mixed market breadth today with its benchmark FBM KLCI likely to swing sideways inside a narrow trading range in the absence of market-moving news.

There was no visible lead from Wall Street last night as major U.S. equity indices finished slightly up (by between 0.4% and 1.5%) on hopes that the European sovereign debt crisis would not worsen. Meanwhile, corporate news flows back home have dwindled in tandem with the slow trading activity.

Possibly attracting a bit more interest today are the Lion Group of companies – namely Lion Corporation, Lion Diversified and Lion Industries – following media reports stating that the government is considering proposals to provide assistance to its steel manufacturing unit Megasteel in response to the increased competition from imported hot-rolled coils.

Germany is strongly considering not providing Greece with further bailout funds

2011-09-13T08:12:00.002+08:00

The odds of a Greek default climbed to 98% on Monday, fueled by speculation that Germany is strongly considering not providing Greece with further bailout funds.

According to Bloomberg, which cited data provider CMA, “it now costs a record $5.8 million upfront and $100,000 annually to insure $10 million of Greek debt for five years using credit-default swaps, up from $5.5 million in advance Sept. 9.” The default probability assumes a recovery rate of 40%, which means investors would receive 40% of the face value of their Greek bonds.

In a speech this past weekend, Greek Prime George Papandreou failed to reassure the international community that Greece can survive the European sovereign debt crisis. Papandndreou’s efforts were undermined by a report on Greece’s budget deficit that revealed it widened 22% in the first eight months of 2011.

Asia market likely to end the bull and now start the bear market. FBM KLCI likely to have a big deep before any rebound will happen.

Mini symmetrical triangle formation

2011-09-12T13:01:00.003+08:00

Our Malaysian bourse will probably carry on bouncing back and forth amid light trading activity while waiting for fresh leads to surface. From a technical perspective, the FBM KLCI is still facing downside risks with no signs of a trend reversal yet.

The benchmark index fell first (to a low of 1,453.26) but recouped most of its initial losses subsequently to close at 1,469.12 last week. This was 5.0-point or 0.3% lower than where it was two Fridays ago. Finishing mixed through the week were the FBM 70 Index (-0.7%) and the FBM ACE Index (+1.4%). Reflecting a dearth of interest from investors, daily average trading volume dropped to 710.0m shares (from 873.3m units) valued at RM1.3b (RM2.0b the previous week).

Foreign fund flows should be dictating Asian equities performance ahead. Foreign buying and selling activities were fairly mixed last week with: (a) net foreign selling in Thailand, which amounted to USD117m, when the equity bellwether dipped 0.3%; (b) net foreign buying of USD70m in Indonesia as the stock market gauge ended up 4.1%; and (c) a fairly balance sum of +USD18m in Philippines, which saw a 1.1% index drop This follows a broad sell-off in Aug, when foreigners sold more shares than they bought in: (a) Thailand (a net outflow of USD1.4b versus a net inflow of USD1.2b in Jul); (b) Indonesia (minus USD989m versus a net buying value of USD607m in Jul); and (c) Philippines (minus USD115m versus +USD214m in Jul). Our
Malaysian share exchange – which does not publicly provide weekly information on foreign fund flows and after having registered a net foreign selling sum of USD1.3b in Aug (versus +USD0.2b in Jul) – could be tracking the foreign funds patterns in these countries going forward.

Hence, domestic news flows may not matter much for stock market investors at the moment. On tap thisweek include: (a) plantation statistics (on production, exports, inventory etc) for Aug to be out Monday; and (b) corporate financial announcements by the likes of SP Setia (on Thursday) Technically speaking, downside risks remain for the FBM KLCI as we expect any upward movements to be capped by a negative sloping trend line. Our first two resistance hurdles are kept at 1,495 and 1,530, respectively.

The chart also captures a mini symmetrical triangle formation, which is usually considered as an intermediate continuation pattern. As it approaches the apex of the triangle, the FBM KLCI could break out on the downward direction. A resumption of the bearish momentum may then force the benchmark index to plunge towards the support lines of 1,465 and 1,435 ahead.

Dow finished down 304 points - react after President Barack Obama presented Congress and the nation a $447 billion jobs program

2011-09-10T10:54:00.004+08:00

Friday was the first chance for the markets to react after President Barack Obama presented Congress and the nation a $447 billion jobs program. It is not clear to traders that the plan will get through a bitterly divided Congress. The Dow finished down 304 points, or 2.7 percent, its steepest drop in more than three weeks. It closed at 10,992. The average approached a 400-point drop at some points in the afternoon.

Such an outcome could tip the world economy back into recession. In the U.S., economic growth is already slowing, and unemployment is stuck above 9 percent.

Next week FBM KLCI likely to deep to new low.

President Obama - $450 Billion Stimulus Plan

2011-09-09T08:12:00.003+08:00

Obama stimulus plan included extending and expanding the existing payroll tax holiday for another year. Instead of paying 4.2 percent on the first $106,800 of income, Americans will only pay 3.2 percent. (The usual rate is 6.2 percent) There are also tax cuts for business, funds for infrastructure and states, and money to support mortgage refinancing.

Will this help the share? Today Asia market will show it.

Speculation that President Obama will announce an economic stimulus package at a press conference tomorrow helped buoy stocks

2011-09-08T08:06:00.003+08:00

Speculation that President Obama will announce an economic stimulus package at a press conference tomorrow helped buoy stocks and commodities. Any QE3 flow out will push share higher and also food price.

FBM KLCI Is Supported By Local Fund

2011-09-07T09:08:00.003+08:00

Foreign investor is flowing out from Malaysia and in this few week the empty space replace by local fund investor. However, the fund is buying in low price and supported at 1,450 level.

Share Market Will Deep Untill QE3 Announce

2011-09-06T07:55:00.004+08:00

Last night European share market deep about 4% to 6% due to U.S, jobs data on Friday, so today Asia share may likely to follow the deep same go to FBM KLCI. Share market will zip zap up down to deep more untill QE3 announce and Gold price will hits USD2,000 per oz.

Foreign investor is net seller since July and the support take over by local fund investor. Retail investor also up when the share market deep. For short term, Gold is the best investment and Gold will not bubble because Gold can not be printed.

Choppy days could still be ahead for Malaysia equities

2011-09-05T10:11:00.002+08:00

Choppy days could still be ahead for Malaysia equities as sentiment-driven investors react to news flows against a risky global economic backdrop. Technically speaking, with buying confidence still clearly missing, more downsides in the FBM KLCI are anticipated.

During the holiday-shortened week, the benchmark index was up 29.3-point or 2.0% in one-and-a-half day to recover parts of its recent losses. Also rebounding were the FBM 70 Index and the FBM ACE Index with a weekly increase of 2.4% and 2.6%, respectively. Daily average trading volume was unsurprisingly light at 873.3m shares valued at RM2.0b, almost similar to the 884.5m units worth RM1.9b traded in the previous week. Regional peers got a lift too from their oversold positions. Leading the pack last week were India (+6.1% week-on-week), Korea (+5.0%) and Taiwan (+4.2%). Meanwhile, key U.S. equity indices posted a weekly change of between minus 0.4% and flat.

Investors’ mood to sell rather than buy shares will persist until and unless the fundamental picture turns rosy again. Consider the corporate earnings review after the Apr – Jun quarterly results season had ended last week. With more listed companies reporting disappointing financial performances (23% within our coverage) instead of pleasant surprises (totaling just 11%) – while the balance 66% of the companies met expectations – the consequential profit growth downgrade in our earnings universe to 11% (from 18% one quarter ago) for this year would have inevitably dampened investors’ sentiment.

Up next is a reassessment of Malaysia’s economic growth prospects. We will get an update on the latest macro developments from the following line-up of data releases: (a) Bank Negara Malaysia’s interest rate decision (which may reflect the central bank’s internal opinion on the state of the economy) when its monetary policy committee meets on Thursday; (b) external trade statistics for Jul also due on Thursday; and (c) index of industrial production for Jul scheduled on Friday. On the chart, the FBM KLCI is standing now at 1,474.09, 7.7% below its 11 Jul peak of 1,597.08 and 3.6% above the recent trough of 1,423.47 (on 9 Aug). From a technical perspective, after falling in six of the last eight weeks, there is no sign yet to suggest a trend reversal is underway at this juncture. This means the benchmark index could still be on a steady slide, possibly zigzagging with a negative bias to re-test the first two support lines of 1,465 and 1,435, respectively.

Volatile as it may be, we reckon any intermittent technical rebounds in the FBM KLCI will be capped at the resistance thresholds of 1,495 (immediate) and 1,530 (next). In addition, the existence of an intermediate downward sloping trend line (see chart overleaf) could limit any short-term advancement in the benchmark index ahead.

Worse than expected jobs report

2011-09-03T06:28:00.002+08:00

Following this morning’s worse than expected jobs report, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius predicted that Ben Bernanke and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve will step up their level of accommodative monetary policies.

In a note to clients, the Goldman economist wrote the following:

BOTTOM LINE: We now look for the FOMC to announce a lengthening in the average maturity of its balance sheet at the September 20-21 meeting.

MAIN POINTS:

1. Following today’s worse-than-expected jobs report, we now look for the FOMC to announce a lengthening of the average maturity of the Fed’s balance sheet at the September 20-21 meeting, with sales of relatively short-dated Treasuries and purchases of relatively long-dated Treasuries.

While such a measure would differ from the first two rounds of quantitative easing – in that the Federal would not be expanding the size of its balance sheet this time – the fact that the Fed would be purchasing Treasuries is likely to cause many investors and economists to label this move as QE3.

Moreover, such a decision by the Fed could establish a precedent for further easing, such as outright Treasury purchases similar in nature to that of QE1 and QE2, which would certainly qualify as QE3.

Fed Minutes Show Growing Divide

2011-08-31T08:11:00.002+08:00

The release of the Fed minutes yesterday afternoon revealed a growing divide among Chairman Ben Bernanke and his fellow U.S. central bankers over the proper course of monetary policy.

The Fed minutes – a recap of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting – showed that at the most recent August 9th meeting, several members were in favor of further stimulus while others were concerned that additional rounds of quantitative easing could ignite inflation.

U.S. policymaker suggested the economy is in need of further fiscal stimulus

2011-08-29T09:37:00.002+08:00

While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did not advocate for additional monetary stimulus in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, another key U.S. policymaker suggested the economy is in need of further fiscal stimulus.

Aboard Air Force Two, Vice President Joe Biden stated that “I think the economy does need more stimulus.”

Although Biden did not elaborate on the size of any proposed stimulus measures, he did note that “that it was difficult to get the 2009 package of some $830 billion in spending and tax cuts through Congress even when Democrats had majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate,” according to a reuters report.

The article also noted that the Obama administration is planning to present new proposals over the next month to tackle the nation’s ongoing unemployment problem.

Huge Foreign Fund Exit CIMB

2011-08-27T08:41:00.002+08:00

Yesterday we see CIMB share give up all the share price gain in a year. The price deep to RM7.02 is the level year ago. Huge foreign fund exit CIMB and most of Malaysia blue chip after Najib said Malaysia share market is majority domestic and US effect is not mach.

But this few day FBM KLCI is the badly hits in Asia share market. Najib brother company hits the most.

Foreign investor is running out from Malaysia share market

2011-08-26T08:58:00.002+08:00

Foreign investor is running out from Malaysia share market. There become net seller in this few days and likely to countinues today. FBM KLCI may likely to deep to 1,430 level. CIMB is the biggest sale down.

MayBank Bull Caped By Poor Asia Share Outlook

2011-08-25T08:18:00.003+08:00

MayBank 4Q result is very good, however the price is caped due to Asia share market in bad outlook. I think likely MayBank share will move up when all the dust clear.

FBM KLCI Likely To Hits Back 1,500 Level

2011-08-24T08:17:00.002+08:00

Today FBM KLCI likely to hits back 1,500 level due to positive outlook in the US market. However trading vol may likely to be low due to long week holidays on next week.

MayBank Earnings Rose To RM1.15 Billion

2011-08-23T08:05:00.004+08:00

MayBank earning rose to RM1.15 billion in 4Q2011 ended June 30. With US market and Euro market close positively, today Asia market may move up and FBM KLCI major share, MayBank is number one so if FBM KLCI to move high, MayBank share need to move high.

However, investor may likely to buy share now because by invest there money in Gold is more profitable and safe. Gold price just hits above USD1,900/oz this morning.

FBM KLCI Facing Selling Pressure

2011-08-22T10:31:00.003+08:00

FBM KLCI is facing selling pressure likely due to next week a long week holiday and most of the company will out they worker salary early so money is flow out from the market. Investor also not going to keep a lot of share during this long week holidays.

Raya rally is likely not to happen in this year

2011-08-20T10:25:00.002+08:00

Dow Jones Ind deep below 10,900 level on yesterday closing. As thing did not getting better from US and Euro so Asia share market also will be at red zone. Most of the investor will flow the money out from share and into Gold so money flowing in market will be less and the index will deep very low in coming week if the fear is continues grow.

However, likely US and Euro will do something to support the share market and coming next 2 week is Hari Raya so I think investor will at the side line till the holiday end. Due to this FBM KLCI unlikely to move up so Raya rally is likely not to happen in this year.

Dow Jones Inds Deep 400 Point - Here Come Again

2011-08-19T08:13:00.002+08:00

Yesterday Gold price fly high and share deep in US market. Sure the effect will push FBM KLCI down below 1,500 level again. So if today, share open with panic that is the time to buy share.

A Bullish Sign Show In MayBank Chart

2011-08-18T08:22:00.002+08:00

A bullish sign show in Maybank chart after yesterday investor test the market. Maybank now is in the position to mark up before 4Q financial result flow out before Raya. Due to last week big deep and most of the weak retail investor already wash out so it is easy for the big money to mark the price of MayBank up. Short term profitable investment is likely.

QE3 - Most likely scenario

2011-08-17T07:33:00.002+08:00

A third round of quantitative easing (QE3) by the Federal Reserve is now considered the “most likely scenario,” for U.S. monetary policy, according to Goldman Sachs.

In a report to clients, Francesco Garzarelli - chief interest-rate strategist at Goldman Sachs – wrote that “The recent sharp price action in equities and bonds has probably more to do with a focus on ‘tail risks’ in an anaemic US growth environment, concerns about a broader global growth slowdown (as reflected in the sharp moves in global indices and cyclical currencies) and positioning considerations, rather than outright weakness in the incoming data.”

“The macro backdrop and the tightening in US financial conditions that it caused precipitated a further round of policy easing by the Fed,” he continued. ”The central bank has indicated that its current economic forecasts warrant policy rates remaining close to zero for at least another two years and that it stands ready to expand its balance sheet further if needed.”

Based on these developments, Garzarelli noted that “We have built a third round of long-term asset purchases (‘QE3’) into our baseline, although that is, of course, contingent on sub-trend growth in the near term. Judging from our client interactions, and recent investor surveys (e.g., CNBC/Liesman), this is now seen as the most likely scenario, although it is far from being a universally held view.”

As for the investment implications of QE3, the report focused on the outlook for the credit markets – rather than gold, commodities, currencies, or equities.

FBM KLCI Likely To Hits Back 1,500 Level Today

2011-08-16T08:24:00.003+08:00

Base on yesterday bullish sign and Raya & Merdaka is near, FBM KLCI is in bullish pattern. FBM KLCI likely to hits back 1,500 level today after last week most of the weak money already "wash" out from the market. For short term profit, invest into blue chip call warrant is a good move.

FBM KLCI Move Back Near 1,500

2011-08-15T17:15:00.003+08:00

Today FBM KLCI had close near 1,500 level and I think sure this level will be broken before Raya Holidays. All the investor sold there share in panic last week will lose they money to who buy during panic and sold it now.

FBM KLCI technical outlook appears vulnerable

2011-08-15T10:00:00.002+08:00

As the dust begins to settle in the aftermath of the global equities sell-off, it appears that further downside risk for our Malaysian bourse remains probable. In the absence of any concrete interventions from policymakers to reverse the falling momentum, there is a possibility the benchmark FBM KLCI – beyond an intermittent technical rebound – could resume its slide going forward.

The key market barometer fell for the fifth straight week, down 40.8-point or 2.7% to end at 1,483.67 last Friday. Taking a hit too were the FBM 70 Index and the FBM ACE Index with a weekly loss of 4.0% and 6.3%, respectively. Selling activity was brisk as daily average trading rose to 1.6b shares in volume and RM2.9b in value, up from 1.2b units worth RM2.0b in the previous week. A sea of red was visible everywhere else too as share prices got sucked into a freefall. Across the region, plummeting the most through the week were China shares listed in Hong Kong (-8.6%), Korea (-7.7%) and Hong Kong (-6.3%) while major U.S. bellwethers posted weekly losses of between 1.0% and 1.7% amid volatile trading.

We may be stuck in a vicious circle. A sovereign credit rating downgrade – in anticipation of deteriorating economic and financial conditions in the U.S. – has scared investors whose fears then triggered panic selling worldwide, which in turn has put the global economy on even shakier grounds now. As these forces feed on and reinforce one another, market sentiment and economic confidence could remain under considerable pressures. Until this self-perpetuating process is halted, the bearish momentum may persist. So far, the few initiatives taken have not been effective. For example, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s vow to keep interest rates low through mid-2013 while contemplating fresh economic stimulus tools, together with the European Central Bank’s move to purchase sovereign bonds, have failed to give a fillip to the financial markets. As confidence is paramount to a sustained recovery, more concrete and coordinated actions from the policymakers are needed to calm the chaotic markets. Sitting back and doing nothing may no longer be an option should the downward spiral persist.

Still on the economy, it remains to be seen what would be the future implications from the U.S. and Europe fallouts on Asia including Malaysia. While it takes time for any effect to be felt, we will get to make an early assessment when the 2Q11 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is release on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the corporate earnings season is expected to gather pace as listed companies like AMMB (on Monday), WCT (Tuesday), MISC (Thursday) and Hong Leong Bank (possibly sometime this week) are scheduled to announce their Apr – Jun quarterly financial results.

On the chart, the FBM KLCI technical outlook appears vulnerable. While a short-term rebound from an oversold territory is due anytime soon following a sharp drop of 111.1-point or 7.0% over the past five weeks, the benchmark index’s immediate upside could be capped by patchy buying momentum. With no trend reversal in sight yet, beyond the intermediate bounce-up, there is a possibility that the bellwether may sink deeper ahead. If so, then we will count on 1,308 – based on the Fibonacci percentage retracement rule of 38%, as measured from the start of the bull run in mid-Mar 2009 through the mid-Jul 2011’s peak – to act as the major support line.

In the short run, as our local bourse will probably swing broadly sideways, we expect the FBM KLCI to run into resistance at the 1,495 and 1,530 levels. On the downside, the first two support levels are currently set at 1,465 and 1,435, respectively.

Report from HWangDBS

Bernanke doesn’t seem to understand that he is 100% trapped

2011-08-13T08:11:00.001+08:00

The above title refers to comments from Bill Fleckenstein, an investor and market pundit who has been bullish on gold and a strong critic of the Federal Reserve for many years.

In his latest article for MSN Money, Fleckenstein wrote that “Bernanke doesn’t seem to understand that he is 100% trapped. Either he needs to spring more quantitative easing (i.e., QE3) soon, or stocks will crash more and he will have to do it later anyway. For a guy committed to printing our way to prosperity, he sure doesn’t seem to understand the monster that he and his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, have created.”

Fleckenstein went on to talk about the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on the markets and economy, noting that “No matter what the Fed does, though, it can’t fix the problems inside the European banking system, nor can it cure the potential insolvency of European sovereign debt.”

“The scary part about Europe is that, at every step along the way, the European Central Bank, led by Jean-Claude Trichet, and the heads of the European Union have been a day late and a euro short trying to get out in front of the issues they face,” he continued. ”That is partly due to the inherent flaw of the euro system, namely, the difficulty of getting disparate countries to agree to the same policies…All this leaves us in a mode in which anything in any market can trade anywhere.”

Lastly, he wrote that “The potential bright side to all of the carnage is that it will force us to start dealing with our problems and hopefully scare us enough that we find the courage to solve them. However, in the short run (i.e., the next year or two), turmoil and pain will likely continue, as there are no short-term solutions to the litany of economic and financial problems that we — and the rest of the world — face.”

FBM KLCI Panic Selling Ended

2011-08-12T08:17:00.002+08:00

After yesterday drop about 26% and slowly moving up is a sign that the panic selling is ended so next week share market will be more supported except more bad news flow out from US or Europe. For me I think unlikely any bad news will flow out because most of it already cause the market to "wash" out the weak money into gold.

Back home, Hari Raya is about 2 week to come so the share market may likely to hits back to 1,500 level again by next week.

Money Is Flowing Out From Share Market To Gold

2011-08-11T09:42:00.002+08:00

Yesterday a small technical rebound is really not a good sign in share market. Base on world share market, money is flowing out from share market to gold! Gold price just hits USD1,800 per oz and just in less than 2 week Gold price up USD100 5.88% it was better that in FD.

Base on the FBM KLCI index yesterday, it show that investor is not going to invest more in share even the price had deep more than 10% and I think this event will continues for a week till US government do something about it.